Stanley Johnson again the star in NBA Summer League

The best Johnson this summer. 

Stanley Johnson was again the most efficient player on a winning team during Wednesday's NBA Summer League play. With only three games on the schedule, all being played in Orlando, FL, there was an opportunity for some fringe players to open eyes. However, the players who head our list of the dozen best for the day, are a familiar lot. Nobody was better than Johnson, the Detroit Pistons rookie swingman from Arizona. Johnson scored 20 points (8-15 FG, 0-1 3-pt., 4-7 FT), while adding ten rebounds, three steals, and two blocked shots in 26 minutes. The Pistons rolled over the Indiana Pacers 90-65. Johnson has been the best player through the first five days of NBA Summer League games. 

Hoop Obsession All-NBA Summer League team for Wednesday, July 8, 2015: 

Myles Turner - Indiana. ...Turner was strong again in defeat. The Pacers' rookie BIG scored 23 points (9-16 FG, 0-1 3-pt., 5-7 FT), grabbed eight boards, and blocked four shots in 31 minutes. 

Willie Reed - Miami. ...The Heat went to 4-0 with an 87-85 win over the Los Angeles Clippers. Reed, as he's done in each game, played a quality game in the paint. Reed finished with 17 points (7-10 FG, 3-5 FT), seven rebounds, and four blocked shots in 30 minutes.  

Yanick Moreira - Clippers. ...Moreira played his best game to date Wednesday. The rookie free-agent from SMU had eight points (3-6 FG, 2-2 FT) and seven rebounds in just 20 minutes. 

Joseph Young - Indiana. ...Young is being asked to play point guard on this poorly assembled Pacers summer roster. The team fell to 0-3 Wednesday. Young played as well as one can expect for a guy out of position. The natural shooting guard in a PG's body scored 25 points (9-15 FG, 3-3 3-pt., 4-4 FT), had three rebounds, and five assists (but four turnovers as well) in 32 minutes. 

Branden Dawson - Clippers. ...Dawson scored 15 points (7-13 FG, 1-3 FT) and added eleven rebounds, three steals, and four blocked shots in another active, productive game. 

D.J. Newbill - Clippers. ...The undrafted rookie from Penn State has demonstrated the required athletic ability to compete in the NBA. He played his best game of the summer Wednesday with 18 points and four rebounds in 26 minutes. Newbill is a 6'4", 210 lb., shooting guard. 

Jared Berggren - Detroit. ...Berggren had eight points (4-6 FG) and seven boards in 22 minutes.

Sundiata Gaines - Detroit. ...Gaines is among the older players still trying to gain attention in the summer. The 29 year-old NBA veteran from Georgia came off the Pistons bench Wednesday to score 14 points (5-9 FG, 1-3 3-pt., 3-4 FT) and snare three rebounds in 21 minutes.  

Diante Garrett - Clippers. ...The 26 year-old point guard has impressed as a backup that is right on the verge of being an NBA player again. Garrett was last seen in the league in 2013-14 with the Utah Jazz. Wednesday, Garrett had 20 points (9-18 FG, 1-3 3-pt., 1-2 FT), six rebounds, three assists, and three steals in 37 minutes (a heavy load for summer play). 

Justin Harper - Detroit. ...Harper had eight points (3-6 FG, 0-1 3-pt., 2-2 FT), six rebounds and two blocked shots, coming off the Pistons bench. We have always maintained that Harper's best position is small forward yet teams seem to want to make him a stretch-four. Despite the good numbers Wednesday, Harper doesn't rebound well enough to pull off the power forward play with consistent success. 

Scottie Wilbekin - Orlando (White). ...Wilbekin has a reputation as a great defender who can't make perimeter shots. However, he is making strides toward proving folks wrong about his jumper. Wilbekin had 15 points (5-12 FG, 5-8 3-pt.), and three rebounds in 25 minutes as a key cog in keeping the Orlando White team undefeated. The Magic White team beat Charlotte 81-68. 

The Sweet 16. The players to watch that remain in the 2014 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

There is no need to wig out just because Andrew Wiggins is out of the 2014 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. There are still plenty of prospects to ponder. The group that remains in the Sweet 16 includes more than a dozen future NBA players. We have come up with a list of 16 players we are watching closely from an NBA scouting perspective... (Note: players with the NBA logo next to their name, are players we have certified as "NBA athletes")

Aaron Gordon - Arizona. 6'9" 212 Freshman. Gordon is an NBA athlete, and he defends at a high level. He led the Pac 12 in Defensive rating this season. He is tremendous in the open-court not only as a finisher but also as a decision maker. Gordon is a rare 6'9" athlete that has enough finesse to have more assists than turnovers. He also has enough flair in his game to wow crowds with an amazing array of acrobatic dunks. He is excellent on the offensive glass due to his ability to move his feet so well. ...Gordon's shooting stroke is not ready for primetime. He is shooting 33% from beyond the arc but the long-ball is not a major part of his game. He is a horrid 43% free throw shooter. ...Aaron Gordon is the younger brother of former New Mexico standout Drew Gordon. 

Randle dominates paint.

Julius Randle - Kentucky. 6'9" 248 Freshman. ...Randle projects as a bonafide top-tier Power Forward at the next level. The lefty scorer has a quick first step, and natural ability that is rarely seen in a BIG body.  He has advanced footwork for his age, and a knack for simply getting buckets with his soft touch. Randle shoots 70% FT. ...Randle's "defensive rating" needs improvement. The one area of his defense that is strong is defensive rebounding. He led the SEC in total defensive rebounds. …It's easy to see the low post offensive skills that Randle possesses. He needs to tighten up his decision making and be better than nearly two turnovers for every one assist. 

Kyle Anderson - UCLA. 6'9" 235 Sophomore. ...Anderson is the on-court leader for the Bruins. He is a 6'9" point guard that seemingly plays in slow-motion, as his nickname, "Slo Mo" suggests . He led the Pac 12 in assists per game, and in defensive rebounds per game. That's a combo you rarely, if ever, see. …Anderson owns a 1.9-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He averages 14.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game. He shoots the three-ball at 37% (career), and hits 74% of his foul shots. Some have questioned Anderson's ability to defend but his Defensive Rating is better than average (significantly better than Julius Randle's Defensive Rating). Anderson's length allows him to get deflections, and close-out "stops" with a defensive rebound. While others may doubt Anderson, I do not. He is too smart, too gifted, and too skilled to fail. I think he is a future starting NBA player at minimum. 

Harris has poise

Gary Harris - Michigan St. 6'5" 210 Sophomore. ..."As steady as they come" is the way I like to describe Gary Harris' game. He is a 6'4" shooting guard that gets you 17 points per game, hits 37% of his three point shots (career), has a 1.25-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, all while playing good defense. He needs to gain weight (he will as he ages) but Harris plays with energy and appears to have a "self-starter" motor. Harris' mother, Joy Holmes-Harris, played for the WNBA Detroit Shock. 

Sam Dekker - Wisconsin. 6'7" 220 Sophomore. ...Watching Wisconsin games can be fun! Sam Dekker is more athletic than he looks, and he has a skill level that is not matched by many college wings. He has deep range on his jumper and he has a toughness about him that NBA coaches will love. He averages 12 points and six rebounds per game, and he has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio (something I love to see in a SF). Dekker is shooting 36% (career) from beyond the college arc. He shoots 68% FT. Defensively, he ranks in the upper-half of all SF's in the 2014 NCAA Tournament. 

Willie Cauley-Stein - Kentucky. 7'0" 244 Sophomore. ...Cauley Stein is a rim protecting BIG that is remarkably quick off his feet. He averages three blocked shots per game but scores only seven points per outing. He knows his limitations reasonably well and he seldom takes a bad shot. He shoots 62% FG. ...Far from complete, Cauley Stein is a horrid free throw shooter (42% FT), and he has more turnovers than assists. But his upside is ridiculously high. You just don't find seven footers that can move the way Cauley-Stein does. 

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - Arizona. 6'7" 215 Freshman. ...Arizona is loaded, and freshman Rondae Hollis-Jefferson stands out among great athletes, as the most hyper-athletic guy on the Cats' roster. Hollis-Jefferson is an elite defender with a Defensive rating of 88.6. (That's tremendously good). …Hollis-Jefferson has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio but he struggles as a perimeter shooter (he hit only two 3-pt shots all season). He shoots 67% from the line. ...I view him as an top-notch athlete with a huge upside. If the shooting gets better, look out. 

A major Payne to opponents

Adreian Payne - Michigan St. 6'10" 245 Senior. ...The improvement in Payne's game is remarkable. He averaged 2.6 points as a freshman, and now he's good for 16.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. He is experienced, having played four seasons for Tom Izzo, and as a member of USA Basketball's World University Games team. Payne has added range to his face up game and now hits 43% of his three point shots (39 of 89 this season). His free throw percentage is 75% (career). ...The only thing Payne does not do is make great decisions with the ball (more than two turnovers for every one assist). 

Chris Walker - Florida. 6'10" 220 Freshman. ...Walker is a long, NBA athlete that can finish in transition with the best. He made his NCAA debut in early February and he has only played 77 total minutes this season. However, he was a 2013 McDonald's All-American, and his physical tools are obvious. He was ranked as the 12th best overall player in the Class of 2013 by ESPN. ...In a small sample size of minutes as a Gator, his defensive rating is 84.7 - which is incredible. 

Jordan Adams - UCLA. 6'5" 220 Sophomore. One of my favorite players is Jordan Adams. I believe he is being underrated by most NBA draft web sites. At a minimum, a very good Shooting Guard meets this criteria: defends his position, can create his own shot, ranks high in points-per-minute, shoots the three-ball > .333, has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio, shoots free throws at or > 80%. Jordan Adams 'checks off' in all those categories. He is an NBA athlete that averages 17.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. He has a "feel" for the game. Efficient shooting guards can be hard to come by, and teams with great, or even 'very good' shooting guards are usually winners (presently, that's Harden, Ginobili, Wade, Bledsoe, Stephenson, Monta Ellis, DeRozan - all with winning records in the NBA). 

Alex Poythress - Kentucky. 6'8" 239 Sophomore. ...Poythress is an NBA athlete with a high ceiling. He is a strong 6'8" 239 lbs but he is quick enough to take defenders off the dribble on the wing. In the low post, he overpowers smaller wing players. Poythress shoots 34% from beyond the college arc (career) but he does not shoot a high volume of deep shots. He's only playing 18 minutes per game this season, and consistency has been an issue for him. He may wind up being more of a Power Forward than a Small Forward. 

Nik Stauskas - Michigan. 6'6" 200 Sophomore. Stauskas is a confident guard that can really shoot the ball. He scores 17 points per game, and hits an amazing 44% of his three-point attempts. At the free throw line he makes 83%. He has a 1.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. ...His defensive numbers are not good (DEFRTG of 107.6 this season). Stauskas has proven he can play offense at the NBA level, but his relative lack of defensive ability may prohibit him from being anything more than a backup wing player in the NBA. 

Melvin Ejim - Iowa State. 6'6" 230 Senior. Ejim was the 2013-14 Big 12 Player of the Year, posting averages of 18 points and eight rebounds per game. He is a smart, hustling, active player that, in college, plays forward. In the NBA, if he makes the cut, we see Ejim as a TWO. He has improved to 34% as a three-point shooter. He rebounds exceptionally well for his 6'6" size, and he hits 73% of his free throws. 

Cory Jefferson - Baylor. 6'9" 210 Senior. Jefferson improved his scoring, and rebounding averages in each successive season at Baylor. He topped out this season as a Senior at 13.6 points, and 8.2 rebounds per game. …Jefferson is an NBA athlete that plays above the rim. He rarely takes a bad shot, and as a result he's made 55% of his career field goal attempts. He is dependable too, suiting up for every Baylor game (74) in the last two seasons. While he has improved his perimeter shooting, his decision making remains a work in progress. He presently turns the ball over twice for every one assist. 

Kaminsky parks one.

Frank Kaminsky - Wisconsin. 7'0" 234 Junior. Frank Kaminsky is a seven-footer with skill and shooting touch. He has a feel for the game. He averages 13.6 points, and 6.3 rebounds per game. He can make three point shots, owns a positive assist-to-turnover ratio, and he shoots 76% from the foul line. He is not terrible on defense but he'd rank in the lower tier of NBA Centers due to average-to-below average athleticism. Overall, I like Kaminsky. I think he CAN crack an NBA roster due to his high skill level combined with his height.  

Glenn Robinson III - Michigan. 6'6" 210. Sophomore. The son of Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson is an athletic wing player that is shooting 52% FG for his two-season career at Michigan. He is tremendous as a finisher in transition, playing above the rim. He routinely finishes on the run with highlight dunks. ...Robinson's decision making with the ball is just okay. He has slightly more assists than turnovers in his career, although this season, he's in negative territory. Robinson is not an accurate three point shooter, hitting on just 30% career. He shoots 71% FT. ...Defensively, Robinson's DEFRTG is below average for his position. I view Robinson as another gifted athlete that has a high upside. Improving just a handful of percentage points in his shooting could be HUGE for Robinson's NBA career.   

Delusions in scouting. Best point guard debate. Efficiency matters.

A hot debate in the basketball world right now is taking place daily. Who is the best point guard in the NBA? I've heard some touting Deron Williams, while others prefer Chris Paul (pictured at right). Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, and Derrick Rose usually get a mention, and now Russell Westbrook is also getting some love from media members who work the NBA beat.


Those of you who read this space with any frequency know that we like to make our decisions on such topics by being, what Len Elmore refers to as, 'data informed' - which is opposed to 'data driven'. 


Some talent scouts forgo numbers altogether and opt to opine with just a 'feel', or gut reaction. The problem with any gut reaction in evaluating players is that we all, as humans, have emotions attached. Our eyes trick us. Our hearts lead us astray. ...Let me explain.


Visual delusion comes about in evaluation when a scout sees a player with outstanding athleticism and flash. High jumping players, explosive players, or players with Curly Neal ball-handling skills vault to the head of too many "big boards" simply because some scouts are reading too much into what their eyes easily see. 


It is easy to fall prey to the high-flying player who ALMOST pulls off the traffic dunk that "would've blown the roof off". Instead - he blows the dunk. Inevitably there is a long rebound which leads to a fast break for the opposition. That is a net of minus four points. ...I despise that. Yet there would surely be witnesses who stated they "loved the player's explosion" and "his ability to attack the rim". 

There were smart people who saw highlights of USC's ridiculously explosive dunk machine - Harold Miner (pictured at left) - and they assumed he was going to be a star. Some called him the next Michael Jordan. 


Yi Jianlian was drafted two positions before Joakim Noah in the 2007 NBA Draft. Scouts were correct in only one regard. Yi IS more athletic when it comes to a sprint race or a jumping contest. But of course there are no sprint races or high-jump bars in basketball. And we can all agree now that Noah - due to his basketball skills, toughness and grit - is the far superior player. 


There are scouts and smart people right now that have the gall to call dribbling wizard Kalin Lucas, of Michigan State, the best point guard in the Big Ten. Nevermind that Lucas presently has 25 assisted baskets and only one less turnover. Nevermind that Lucas seems incapable of finishing any play that involves him getting to the rim. He makes million dollar moves with his ball handling to penetrate the paint but the result is often not worth a dime.


My only guess is that those who argue of favor of Lucas have either not seen DeMetri McCamey (Illinois), Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin), and E'Twaun Moore (Purdue) - OR - those Lucas fans are suffering from the "herd mentality". If one ESPN analyst says "Kalin Lucas is the best point guard in the Big Ten" it is bound to be repeated by those who actually have not subjected themselves to watching an entire Wisconsin game. 

ASIDE: Bo Ryan's Wisconsin teams play slow-ball. They are calculated and it honestly takes self-discipline for any hoops fan to get excited about seeing them play. I force myself to watch. And in so doing I have discovered that Taylor can coolly run a team AND make shots. 

As John Wooden so famously stated, "Never confuse activity for achievement." And I would add from Chuck D of Public Enemy, "Don't Believe the Hype!". 

If it is not our vision fooling us then it is our hearts that get in the way. When an underachiever achieves - our hearts feel good for the underachiever. Human nature kicks in and suddenly the less efficient player that works hard and scraps is getting more minutes from the coach. Now - in no way - am I saying that hard work and scrappiness is a bad thing or that it should not be rewarded.

I AM SAYING that often - coaches and scouts go too far with their love for an underdog (pictured at left). A decent example locally would be Darnell Jackson of the Sacramento Kings. He was not expected to make the team this season. But anyone who watched him play in the preseason - I'm sure - would think that Jackson overachieved. He knocked down a face up jumper here and there. He set effective screens. He dove on the floor. He scrapped and worked hard - and next thing you know - Darnell Jackson made the final roster for the 2010-11 season. 


Our hearts felt (feel) good about Jackson. But without data to inform us - it would be easy to over-value Jackson's worth. The 'data informed' know that Jackson has major holes in his game. He turns the ball over more than four times per assist. He is a poor free throw shooter (64% career) and most importantly he presently sports a .342 efficiency rating (EFR) which would have ranked 78th of the 85 Power Forwards that played enough minutes to be eligible in last season's final regular season stat audit. 


That Jackson has actually taken away minutes at various times this year from better, more efficient (yet less enthusiastic) players in Jason Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins, and Carl Landry is, to me, an example of an evaluation based too much on heart. I don't dislike Jackson at all. I just have a hard time believing he should have played over 20 minutes in three games already this season. 


In my evaluations of players - I've begun asking myself - "Do I feel like I have to root for this player to make the NBA or get minutes?". If the answer is yes - I'm immediately looking deeper at data to see if there is justification for him being in the NBA. You can keep ONE guy that you root for on the end of the bench (Jeremy Lin) but never more than one. 

Adding to our delusion, there is the 24 hour sports news cycle that we live in. ESPN (ABC) and CBS are the current homes for college basketball and the teams they feature are exposed more than teams in smaller conferences. And it is not just their actual games being played that are responsible for the exposure. Trust me on this one. I work in television. What makes the "air" is what is good for the network. 


In other words, if two plays are equally spectacular - but one occurred on a Saturday by a New Mexico State player - and the other happened during an ESPN televised Saturday game by a Big East, Villanova player, - the exposure advantage goes to the `Nova kid. His play will be seen repeatedly on nationally televised ESPN Sports Center, and on ESPN2, and ESPN-U. Sports talk shows such as PTI, Around the Horn, and the horrid Sports Nation will add fuel to the fire. ESPN Radio will chat up the player and talk glowingly of his highlight. 


The "build-up" occurs because there will be another game coming up on ESPN with the same Villanova player in it. It makes sense for ESPN to promote the players who play in the conferences that the network has contracts with. Meanwhile - the New Mexico State player likely gets no love outside of his region. 


The more we observe a player and allow his game to seep into our consciousness the easier it is to be comfortable with that player. Again, human nature. If player A is slightly better than player B but the scout saw player B play more often, and be seemingly constantly on National TV, chances are that the scout will gravitate toward the player he is more familiar with even when the data says to do otherwise.


And don't forget ESPN's presence on the internet. Chad Ford infamously helped a nation believe in 2003 that Darko Milicic should have been drafted before Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. 



If Landry Fields (current New York Knicks rookie sensation - pictured at left) played in the Big East rather than the Pac 10 last season, I would argue that he would have likely been a more well known commodity and he would have never slipped to pick 39 in the 2010 NBA Draft.  His team, Stanford, didn't make the NCAA Tournament and his exposure was simply not on par with lesser players who balled in the SEC, ACC, or Big East. 


This media monopoly of the airwaves should NEVER be underestimated. It affects even the smartest of scouts who simply cannot isolate themselves enough to avoid the hype machine   known as ESPN that infiltrates any sports fan's life. 


The Efficiency Rating (EFR) is my slice of undeniable truth. However, the statistical formula that is so often referenced here has holes too. It is pure science. Points scored, plus assists, plus steals, plus rebounds, plus blocked shots minus missed field goals, minus missed free throws, minus turnovers - all divided by the number of minutes played. ... Strictly numbers.

Much like a hoe, the EFR is a tool.

The EFR is simply one part (a very BIG part) of the "tools" needed be 'data informed'. I believe in it because in 26 years of studying it - the EFR rarely fails. The most efficient teams win way more often than they lose. The EFR looks across a variety of measurable stats and levels the playing field between players who have played more minutes than others.  Perhaps the biggest key to the success of the EFR as a measuring tool lies in the use of figuring in turnovers and missed free throws which are simply overlooked too often in evaluation of players.


Efficiency isn't everything. Because the NBA and NCAA do not count, for example, charges taken, as a statistical category - the EFR has that proven positive attribute left out of the equation. The EFR does not allow for winning intangibles such as enthusiasm, professionalism, or willingness to be coached. The EFR does not account for solid, non-gambling defense, or the pass that leads to the pass that gets the assist.


ASIDE: For the record, we did add 'charges drawn' to the EFR formula once just to see how much it would raise a player's efficiency. Using Anderson Varejao's league leading standard in 2006-07 of one charge taken every 23 minutes, we were able to estimate that by season's end - a league-leading caliber charge taker, could raise his EFR by about .030. 


The EFR is not perfect. That is where a "feel" or plain old common sense has to be part of the process in evaluation. And there is no substitute for watching games. It is the combo of EFR and detailed, focused observation of games that leads to more accurate scouting.

Again - I want to stress that I love players with "heart". I love players that hustle. I want good guys on my team. That stated, the words of club owner Billy Sparks (pictured at left) in Purple Rain must be heeded. "This is a bid-ness! And you can't be too far gone to see that."


So give me players with the skill, talent, efficiency and athleticism it takes to produce WINS. The opposition can have the high jumper that rarely gets assists, or the "defensive specialist" that can't score to save his life. The other team can have that "point guard" that shoots with a full shot clock before making one pass. 


Which brings us back to the current debate about the best point guard in the NBA. (You thought I forgot?). The efficiency rating sees it this way:


#1 Chris Paul .741
#2 Steve Nash .684
#3 Russell Westbrook .672
#4 Deron Williams .659
#5 Stephen Curry .619
#6 Derrick Rose .585
#7 Rajon Rondo .576
#8 Tony Parker .570
#9 Raymond Felton .565
#10 Jameer Nelson .564


With EFR not being the end all, be all - we apply some "feel" and common sense to the above top-ten list. Paul's lead in EFR is so big that I can't justify saying another player's intangibles make him worthy of being ranked higher than Paul. So I'll go with Paul as the best in the NBA right now. 

Russell Westbrook drives by Jordan Farmar. 

But while the EFR list has Nash at #2 - common sense tells me that Nash is not a great defender, and he also misses a game here and there to protect his health because he is older than most other NBA PG's. Russell Westbrook is close to Nash in EFR and he is a GREAT defender with no limitations on his total minutes. So I'll take Westbrook as the current #2. Deron Williams, I think, vaults over Nash as well at this point for similar reasons. 


The point of all this rambling is that there is no one specific set of statistics that will ever give you a definitive answer when evaluating players. Likewise - a scout should never go totally on feel without using data as a tool to help. 


The best talent evaluators are the scouts that can combine science and common sense and balance the media hype with a dose of reality through close, focused observation. 


...And that is today's word. 

Still learning. Vegas lends clarity?

I am still learning basketball. ...Yes, I  said it. I do not know it all. 

I never thought that I did - although I'm quite sure my blogs come off very cocky to many who are actually employed by NBA clubs. My passion for basketball coupled with an obsessive personality can be easily confused for over-confidence in basketball knowledge. 

I am a FREAK. I study numbers - even on vacation. I've been doing this all of my adult life from the day I stumbled onto the TENDEX Efficiency Rating system. 

But I am still learning.

In recent years - I've accepted that efficiency isn't everything. I've looked closer at personalities, and body-types. I've come to have a better respect for defensive minded players. 

I know that Summer League is just that; a setting where the majority of players are in their first or second year.  That said, it was good to be reminded yesterday by Geoff Petrie, Sacramento Kings President of Basketball Operations that, "it's just summer league".

True. 

Teams ARE experimenting. I guess I just feel strongly that some teams are wasting time (which is not efficient) trying to see if player X can play position Y.  NBA executives at the highest levels often have not had the time to examine non-NBA players closely. They are too consumed with the grind of their own NBA team.

It is understandable.

My wish is for a team to have enough trust in a guy like me who can tell them, with a high degree of accuracy, that player X is not capable of playing position Y in the Association. I know this because I've watched the player and have meticulously scoured his career numbers.

Is the past always a predictor of the future? No. But if a guy had more turnovers than assists on a good team in his Senior year in the Big 12, I'll safely advise that the cat is not a Point Guard. It matters not what his size is or if he can dribble like Curly Neal. 

That is just one simple example.

I've been obsessing over the NBA since 1985. Twenty-five years later, as a married man with no children and a limited work schedule (TV - auto racing), I'm at a point where basketball player efficiency/evaluation is second nature to me. I simply do not have distractions that the average man my age does.

I've often wondered if I could hang with NBA personnel when it comes to evaluating talent. I'm confident now - even more so - after attending this Summer League that I can. I overheard some seriously questionable sentences uttered from the mouths of NBA coaches, and front office types while I was here. There are players playing way out of position. There are players with skill, and talent that are not playing while scrubbier guys are getting minutes.

Maybe someday someone other than (one unnamed NBA executive) will recognize that I actually know more about domestic talent aged 18-35 than a fair percentage of those employed. 

I would be cheaper than the wasted money on high picks that I knew would be busts. Not to mention that every time a team screws up a pick or a free agent signing they are just agonizingly prolonging their ineptitude. I'm not hard to get along with. I listen. And I would only speak up when I was overly confident that the team was about to do something really dumb (like draft Reece Gaines, or Antoine Wright, or Mardy Collins).

Anyone can spot the obvious talents. My specialty is finding that guy that can help a team and at the same time be a bargain relative to the NBA pay scale. Our latest successes reflect how much better we've become at talent evaluation. We were ahead of the game by leaps and bounds on Steph Curry, Ty Lawson, Joakim Noah, Danny Granger, Rajon Rondo, Carl Landry, Wes Matthews, and Marc Gasol to name a few.

As my wife reminded me - no one else is going to do my "public relations". So forgive me for for patting myself on the back and cheerleading in this blog tonight.

I just want a paying gig for my basketball jones. That is all. As James Brown said, "I don't want nobody to give me nothin'. Open up the door. I'll take it myself."