2015-16 Crystal Ball

The NBA season is here! Rejoice!

So who wins it all? I like the Golden State Warriors to repeat as NBA Champions. Their depth, and ability to defend combined with Stephen Curry, the reigning Most Valuable Player, make the Warriors my choice in a quick series facing Eastern Conference champs, the Atlanta Hawks. 

Say what? The Atlanta Hawks? 

Yes. The Atlanta Hawks. Jeff Teague continues to improve, and his backup Dennis Schroder could start for several NBA teams. Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford are all top-tier players at their respective positions. The addition of Tiago Splitter and the subtraction of Pero Antic makes the Hawks significantly better when Millsap and Horford are out of the game. To top it off, I like their coach Mike Budenholzer. 

Why not Cleveland? It will be close and it could very well be the Cavs representing the East. I just happen to give the edge to Atlanta. Last season the Hawks were 3-5 against the Cavs. Is it really such a stretch to see them improve by a game or two? We think not. 

New and Improved?

The Boston Celtics look to be improved this season. Already one of the deepest teams in the NBA, the C's added David Lee and Amir Johnson to their front court rotation. Coach Brad Stevens is a guy we believe in as both a communicator and as a 'basketball mind'. 
The Miami Heat should return to being a 50-plus-win team this season thanks to a healthy Chris Bosh, and a full season of Goran Dragic running the point. Gerald Green scoring off the bench, and a full season of Hassan Whiteside manning the paint will help too.

Who will win 2015-16 MVP?

We will go with James Harden, the most productive player in the game that is also efficient. However, the MVP race should be very close. Curry, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Anthony Davis all figure to challenge Harden.

If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be? 
Anthony Davis. He is just now 22 years old. Had he been a four-year college player, this would be his rookie NBA season. 

Freaky deeky!

Which player is most likely to have a breakout season in 2015-16?
We like three players in this category but Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way, with Meyers Leonard and Reggie Jackson deserving consideration. 

Which team made the best overall moves this offseason? 
San Antonio with the additions of LaMarcus Aldridge, and David West. 

Which one player acquisition will make the biggest impact? 
LaMarcus Aldridge in a Spurs uniform. 

What was the most underrated player acquisition? 
Jeremy Lamb has a chance to flourish in Charlotte  if he receives the playing time. Ty Lawson will make the Rockets better offensively. But the most underrated addition in our opinion is Cleveland adding Mo Williams. He is a major efficiency upgrade from non-scorer, Matthew Dellevadova. LeBron James will enjoy having a shot maker, in Williams, as a teammate. 

Who will win Rookie of the Year?
Karl Anthony Towns is our pick but we think Stanley Johnson, and Myles Turner will make some noise in this race. Towns is a BIG that has the finesse to shoot 81% from the free-throw line. He is still learning to play in the low post but he is accurate and focused with his touch near the basket. He provides a paint presence that any NBA team could use. 

Which rookie was the biggest steal at where he was selected in the Draft? 
Rondae Hollis Jefferson slipped to being the 23rd selection. We like his ability to defend and finish in transition.  He is an unquestioned NBA athlete that probably should have been picked in the top dozen. 

            

Let's judge the Draft! The 2009 Draft, that is.

Steph over Griffin? Debatable. 

I despise the media habit of giving grades the day after the NBA Draft. The truth is, we do not, and will not, know how the 2014 NBA Draft will play out until it actually plays out. What we CAN do is look back at the 2009 NBA Draft and make some judgements about it. 

As a disclaimer, yes, I understand that a ranking of ANYTHING, let alone NBA players, is subjective. You may not agree with how we re-rank the 2009 Draft. (I can't sleep so I thought a look back at who should have been in the top 15 might be fun.) 

As it stands, five NBA All-Stars were among the 60 selected in 2009. Ten players taken never suited up for a single NBA game. The highest pick no longer in the NBA in Jonny Flynn who was selected sixth by Minnesota. 

The re-draft begins... 

1. Stephen Curry. ...Steph was picked seventh in 2009. The first pick in that Draft was Blake Griffin. You could certainly argue in favor of Kia's Griffin Force leader but we would go with Steph Curry if given a chance to do it over. Curry is an All-Star beloved by fans. He made 2nd team All-NBA in 2013-14. 

2. Blake Griffin. ...Griffin was also 2nd team All-NBA in 2013-14. The second pick in 2009 regretfully was Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet, five years later, has trouble getting into an NBA game. 

3. James Harden. ...Harden was first team All-NBA in 2013-14. You could make a case for any order of Curry, Griffin and Harden. Those three were head and shoulders the best of the 2009 class. Harden did go third in 2009. 

4. Demar DeRozan. ...Things get really subjective in the next handful of picks. DeRozan cracked the NBA All-Star level in 2013-14 so he gets the nod here at four. DeRozan was taken ninth in 2009. The fourth pick in `09 turned out to the Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans. 

Jrue, when not hurt, can ball. 

5. Jrue Holiday. ...The last of the 2009 draftees to make an All-Star team is Jrue Holiday. He slid all the way to 17th in 2009. The fifth pick was Ricky Rubio. 

6. Ty Lawson. ...Lawson went right after Holiday in 2009 as the 18th pick to, "point guard stocking," Minnesota. He was traded to Denver. As mentioned above, the sixth pick in 2009 was Jonny Flynn. 

7. Tyreke Evans. ...Five years after the fact, you could go many different ways with the seventh pick. Evans continues to be wildly inconsistent but when he's "on" he can still do things others simply cannot. 

8. Jeff Teague. ...Teague is a solid NBA starter. He was picked 19th in what turned out to be a really good crop of guards from one single draft. The eighth pick in `09 was Jordan Hill. 

9. Taj Gibson. ...I reach for Taj Gibson with the ninth pick after considering at least three other players. Taj has served his time as backup in the NBA. He is ready to be a full-time starter now. In 2009 Gibson went 26th. 

10. Patty Mills. ...There are players with more hype and more total production on the board but Mills is ascending quickly. In his fifth year he "got it", lost weight, and helped the Spurs win an NBA Championship. Like Taj Gibson, Mills is now ready to be a starter in the league. 

11. Darren Collison. ...Another example of the depth of point guards in 2009. Collison went 21st. The eleventh pick in `09 was Terrence Williams. Williams was last seen being waived by a team in Puerto Rico after a stint in the D-League. 

12. Ricky Rubio. ...One could argue for Rubio to be picked higher. In 2009 the 12th selection was Gerald Henderson. 

13. Jordan Hill. ...Like others in the 2009 Draft, Hill may still be getting better. In limited chances for the Lakers in 2013-14, Hill was very productive on a per-minute basis. The 13th pick in `09 was Tyler Hansbrough. 

14. Brandon Jennings. ...I would expect some push-back on having Jennings rated this low. He has been a productive player in the NBA. The feeling here is that he is still seemingly looking out for himself more often than he is looking out for the team. In 2009 the 14th pick was Earl Clark. 

15. Danny Green. ...Green was selected 46th. In hindsight, this was one of the best value picks of the 2009 NBA Draft. The 15th pick in `09 was Austin Daye. 

...The next eight picks should have been... DaJuan Blair, Wesley Matthews (he was not drafted at all!), DeMarre Carroll, Gerald Henderson, Patrick Beverley, Jodie Meeks, Omri Casspi, and Nando De Colo. 

Still learning. Vegas lends clarity?

I am still learning basketball. ...Yes, I  said it. I do not know it all. 

I never thought that I did - although I'm quite sure my blogs come off very cocky to many who are actually employed by NBA clubs. My passion for basketball coupled with an obsessive personality can be easily confused for over-confidence in basketball knowledge. 

I am a FREAK. I study numbers - even on vacation. I've been doing this all of my adult life from the day I stumbled onto the TENDEX Efficiency Rating system. 

But I am still learning.

In recent years - I've accepted that efficiency isn't everything. I've looked closer at personalities, and body-types. I've come to have a better respect for defensive minded players. 

I know that Summer League is just that; a setting where the majority of players are in their first or second year.  That said, it was good to be reminded yesterday by Geoff Petrie, Sacramento Kings President of Basketball Operations that, "it's just summer league".

True. 

Teams ARE experimenting. I guess I just feel strongly that some teams are wasting time (which is not efficient) trying to see if player X can play position Y.  NBA executives at the highest levels often have not had the time to examine non-NBA players closely. They are too consumed with the grind of their own NBA team.

It is understandable.

My wish is for a team to have enough trust in a guy like me who can tell them, with a high degree of accuracy, that player X is not capable of playing position Y in the Association. I know this because I've watched the player and have meticulously scoured his career numbers.

Is the past always a predictor of the future? No. But if a guy had more turnovers than assists on a good team in his Senior year in the Big 12, I'll safely advise that the cat is not a Point Guard. It matters not what his size is or if he can dribble like Curly Neal. 

That is just one simple example.

I've been obsessing over the NBA since 1985. Twenty-five years later, as a married man with no children and a limited work schedule (TV - auto racing), I'm at a point where basketball player efficiency/evaluation is second nature to me. I simply do not have distractions that the average man my age does.

I've often wondered if I could hang with NBA personnel when it comes to evaluating talent. I'm confident now - even more so - after attending this Summer League that I can. I overheard some seriously questionable sentences uttered from the mouths of NBA coaches, and front office types while I was here. There are players playing way out of position. There are players with skill, and talent that are not playing while scrubbier guys are getting minutes.

Maybe someday someone other than (one unnamed NBA executive) will recognize that I actually know more about domestic talent aged 18-35 than a fair percentage of those employed. 

I would be cheaper than the wasted money on high picks that I knew would be busts. Not to mention that every time a team screws up a pick or a free agent signing they are just agonizingly prolonging their ineptitude. I'm not hard to get along with. I listen. And I would only speak up when I was overly confident that the team was about to do something really dumb (like draft Reece Gaines, or Antoine Wright, or Mardy Collins).

Anyone can spot the obvious talents. My specialty is finding that guy that can help a team and at the same time be a bargain relative to the NBA pay scale. Our latest successes reflect how much better we've become at talent evaluation. We were ahead of the game by leaps and bounds on Steph Curry, Ty Lawson, Joakim Noah, Danny Granger, Rajon Rondo, Carl Landry, Wes Matthews, and Marc Gasol to name a few.

As my wife reminded me - no one else is going to do my "public relations". So forgive me for for patting myself on the back and cheerleading in this blog tonight.

I just want a paying gig for my basketball jones. That is all. As James Brown said, "I don't want nobody to give me nothin'. Open up the door. I'll take it myself."

Late Monday thoughts. Tyreke accomplishes 20, 5 & 5.

Just back from ARCO Arena where we saw Tyreke Evans score 24 points to ensure that he will have rookie season averages of 20 points, five assists, and five rebounds. The other cats that have done that are Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and Lebron James.

This would be a good time to remind anyone not paying us (which is everyone) that we had Tyreke listed only behind Blake Griffin on last year's draft board. The guy listed third on my board earned me snickers from veteran posters on some of the big-name draft site forums. I was arguing with anyone who would listen - that Steph Curry was the third best prospect in the 2009 NBA Draft.

I was wrong about Brandon Jennings. I thought he was too immature and I thought his talent was not sufficient to overcome his youthful indiscretions (i.e. - shot selection, leadership).

I rationalize my miscalculation on Jennings due to simply not being capable of seeing him enough. He was in Europe and all I had was stats, and my notes on him from watching him play in high-school all-star games. I don't have the resources that an NBA team has. I don't subscribe to any services (Synergy) that break down tape of players. But I do often wonder how much better at evaluating talent I might be if I could have access to the tools that an NBA scout has. I would LOVE to go to Portsmouth, Virginia for the P.I.T. or to the upcoming NBA Combine.

In lieu of actually attending - I scoured the box scores from Portsmouth and I will record whatever coverage of the combine that there is on ESPNU. (Can I host that show?)

Or maybe the reason I have had any success at evaluating individuals is simply because the majority of my evaluation comes from watching actual games. Meaningful ones too. By not seeing the P.I.T. or the Combine - I am affected less by what a player is "accomplishing" in basically a practice/scrimmage or workout. That is to say that I am less in love with a player's ability to be a "workout wonder" than I am in love with a player who I've seen star in a game. Who knows.

Reggie Williams is making us look smarter. The Golden State Warriors D-League call-up was a guy we had ranked 40th (or as the 10th pick in round two) in the 2008 NBA Draft. Williams was not selected by any team in that draft but through hard work and D League exposure, the NBA could not deny his talent any longer. Williams is averaging 15.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists for the Warriors through 22 games played since his call up from Sioux Falls.