Players to watch in the NCAA Tournament. ...The Point Guards

Kyrie Irving - Duke 6'2" 172 Freshman - Hoping to play after sitting out the majority of the season with a toe injury - Kyrie Irving is a possible first pick in the NBA Draft. He is a pure point guard that passes ahead, finds the open-man, and does so at NBA speed. He is a smart right-handed guard that may not wow you with the type of athleticism that Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose possess - but nevertheless - Irving gets the job done (think more like Chris Paul style). Irving has good first-step quickness - which gives him the ability to get into the paint. ...He is a good on-ball defender. ...He will sacrifice his body for a loose ball. ...Finishes in transition. ...Not comfortable shooting with his left hand. ...He only played in eight games this season to date but in those eight contests - he was at times dominant. His .710 EFR translates to ELITE Point Guard status at the next level. The question is whether or not - the small sample size of efficiency could have been maintained through ACC play - had he been healthy. ...Irving is a former McDonald's All-American.


Kemba Walker - Connecticut 6'1" 172 Junior - No player has received more television coverage this season than Kemba Walker. An ESPN darling, Walker is a strong Point Guard with great ball handling ability, combined with good speed. He repeatedly has nailed clutch shots for the Huskies this season - and he seems to shine when the lights are at their brightest. …Not afraid to go to the hole. …He competes. …Stays in plays defensively. …Crafty. Good in transition. …Can make a play one on one in crunch time. ...He has a nice stroke that is consistent and reliable. ...Quick hands. ...Alert. He will be among the steals leaders whereever he plays. ...He uses his off hand well (left). …Willing to accept a challenge. He reminds me of Ben Gordon but Walker is a little more of a PG than Gordon ever was. Walker has better vision than Gordon. ...Walker played for the Team USA Select team that practiced against the USA Men's senior National Team in the Summer of 2010. ...From the Bronx, NY. ...For his career his field goal percentage is just .430 - which helps to explain why U-Conn struggles to win with consistency. Defensively - I would like to see Walker have more active hands in on-ball situations.

Shabazz Napier - Connecticut 6'0" 170 Freshman - Napier is a darty small Point Guard that competes. He is very quick and very pesky as an on-ball defender. His 60 steals in just 821 minutes is 'off-the-charts' excellent. ...Right-handed (and he really needs to improve his left). ...Napier has "mix-tape" ball-handling ability. ...Can remind you of Jerryd Bayless. ...Napier shot more three-point shots than free throws this season (something I never endorse). He needs to get to the hole more often. ...His overall field goal percentage is a woeful .383.


Michael Dixon - Missouri 6'1" 180 Sophomore - If there is a more self-confident, aggressive player in the country than Michael Dixon - I don't think I've seen him yet. There is no shot that Dixon doesn't think he should hit. Because of that - Dixon will throw-up a few questionable attempts. ...His respectable .385 3-pt percentage pairs nicely with a nearly two-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio. ...Career 83% free throw shooter.  ...Dixon is a ball of energy with the heart of an assassin. Even though he is small - he can take a hit and still convert a shot. ...He only plays 22 minutes per-game. It says here - if Mizzou wants to make a deeper run - they need to get Dixon more floor time.

Marcus Denmon - Missouri 6'3" 185 Junior - Denmon is a right handed, guard with toughness that can really shoot the ball. This season - Denmon is the rare guard that boasts over 50% FG shooting. From beyond the arc - he nails an unbelievable 45%. He is just as apt to beat you off the dribble which poses a real dilemma for defenders. ...Good quickness.  ...Shoots 74% from the line. ...He reacts quickly. ...Makes good cuts to the hoop. ...Improving rapidly. …Would like to become a basketball coach following his playing career. He owns a nice 1.78 to 1 ast.-to-turnover ratio. ...Suffered a fractured knee-cap as a freshman.

Jackson Emery - BYU 6'3" 185 Senior - Emery is a good athlete that would be easy to overlook in the considerable shadow of Jimmer Freddette.  The truth is, Jackson Emery is one of the most skilled and competitive players in the Mountain West. …He gets after it. This season - he was named Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Year. ...He broke Danny Ainge's BYU career record for steals.  ...He shoots 39% from beyond the arc (career) and he owns a 2.7 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio. "He does have tremendous lateral quickness," said BYU coach Dave Rose, "And he's very skilled at anticipating and understanding what opponents are doing or what their tendencies are. He's one of those guys who can see what's happening before it happens." ...Emery served a two year LDS mission following his freshman season. He is 23 years old.


Peyton Siva - Louisville 5'11" 180 Sophomore - If Peyton Siva becomes a better shooter he has a chance to one day make it as a pro. ...Similar to D.J. Augustin in his ability to run a team but still needing to be more of a scoring threat from the perimeter. ...Siva has the solid 1.86-to-1 assist to turnover ratio but he shoots just .278 from beyond the three-point line. ...Siva is a good on-ball defender. Right handed. ...Former McDonald's All-American.

Brandon Knight - Kentucky 6'3" 185 Freshman - Among the best freshman guards in the country - Knight is natural born leader that has been the glue holding together the late season surge of the Wildcats. ...He is a smart kid with a high basketball IQ. ...His improvement from the beginning of the season to now is noticeable. Knight is a solid shooter at 44% FG, 78% FT, 38% 3-pt. ...At this stage - he may be more of a Shooting Guard than a Point Guard. His assist-to-turnover numbers are not PG worthy at 1.33-to-1. However, his future seems destined to be at the ONE spot. ...He moves without the ball. …He can penetrate or hit the long ball. ...McDonald's All-American.


Brad Wanamaker - Pittsburgh 6'4" 210 Senior.  Wanamaker is the epitome of a Senior Point Guard. He doesn't force anything, he's all business, and he runs his team. ...Wanamaker averages 12 points, five rebounds, and five assists per game. His weakness is his outside shooting ability - which is pedestrian at best (.333 from 3-pt. range). ...He is an alert defender and he seems to be a step ahead mentally. He likes to get to the elbow for his mid-range jumper which he does well. ...He is completely under control. ...He consistently makes the correct pass. ...What he does not do real well is break defenders down off the dribble. He can have difficulty creating his own shot in late clock situations. ...He would be the ideal guard to play alongside a very creative Shooting Guard.

Chris Wright - Georgetown 6'1" 210 Senior  - Wright is a small point guard with a thick, sturdy frame that plays at NBA speed. He has good vision. His assist-to-turnover ratio has improved each season to a rock solid 1.88 to 1 as a Senior. …He has great body control and excellent balance. He can take a hit and still convert. Wright has matured as a Point Guard, improving his shot selection. ...He has deep range. ...Anticipates well defensively. ...Quick. ...Good handle with both right and left hand. Wright never really played with an "above the rim" big man - and I think he would be much more efficicient if he did. ...Right handed. ...A former McDonald's All-American ... Won the three-point shooting contest at the 2007 McDonald's All-American Classic ... Played in the `07 Jordan Brand All-Star Classic in New York ... Named the Gatorade Washington, D.C. Player of the Year as a high school Senior.


E'Twaun Moore - Purdue 6'4" 195 Senior  - The floor leader for Purdue is Moore, a guard with good size that can put the ball in the hole. He scores 18 points per game while helping out on the boards to the tune of five per contest. ...He is not a pure PG but his assist-to-turnover ratio is excellent at 1.96-to-1. ...He's not a pure shooter either - but his three-point percentage is a very healthy .414 this season. His 70% free throw number is probably a better indicator of his touch.  Matt Painter, Purdue Head Coach, said. "E'Twaun is an unselfish player who can be one of the top guards in the country when he allows the game to come to him." ...In high school he led his team, East Chicago, to 2007 4A State Championship.

Elijah Johnson - Kansas 6'4" 195 Sophomore - Johnson is another kid that barely plays (14 minutes per game) for Kansas that could be an NBA player down the road. How about the luxury Bill Self has of going to the bench for the sixth guard on your roster - and he is a guy that shoots over 40% from 3-pt. land and has a better than two-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio? Johnson was ranked as the 24th-29th best overall high school Senior by the major recruiting services in 2009. ...He may not play ten minutes in any tourney game this year - but if he does... I bet he balls!


Isaiah Thomas - Washington 5'8" 170 Junior - Thomas is a speedy guard that has heart! He has  tremendous ability to break defenders down off the dribble and a strong upper-body to convert through contact. ...This season he took a dramatic rise in my eyes as he discovered the joy of sharing the basketball. When he looks to involve his teammates he is such a better player than the what I saw for the majority of his first two seasons. As a freshman and sophomore I thought his game was too about his his own scoring. This season - Thomas owns a two-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio. ...He has increased his three point shooting percentage with his newfound better shot selection. He shoots .357 from beyond the arc. His free throw shooting must improve (just 70%).


Nolan Smith - Duke 6'3" 185 Senior  - The ACC Player of the Year, Smith has dramatically improved since his freshman season. He now averages 21 points per game as a confident leader at Duke. ...He can score in a variety of ways. He is best at driving into the paint after a little hesitation dribble he uses. ...He gets to the free throw line (he had seven games this season with 10+ FTA's), and converts at 81%. ...He can hit a three-point shot (35%). ...Smart player that uses screens well, and plays with poise and patience most of the time. ...As a HS senior in 2006-07, averaged 22.1 ppg., 4.6 rpg., 4.1 apg. and 3.2 spg. to help Oak Hill to a 40-1 record, tying the school’s all-time season high for wins, and a final No. 1 spot in the USA Today 2007 Super 25 national rankings.

Kendall Marshall - North Carolina 6'4" 190 Freshman - Marshall is the pass-first Point Guard that resuscitated the Tar Heels this season with his completely selfless game. ...Always dribbling with his head-up - Marshall's court vision is the kind you see once in every ten to twenty years. Seriously. The kid is THAT special as a passer. His 2.61-to-1 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic! ...However - he does have holes in his game. He is an average athlete at best. He is a poor free throw shooter for a Point Guard at just 66%, and he doesn't help much as a rebounder. ...He does show the craftiness to drive and score; using the hesitation dribble to get into the lane. ...He is good at creating space with his body leanings. ...Former McDonald's All-American.


Others to watch: Jordan Taylor - Wisconsin. Maalik Wayns - Villanova. Demetri McCamey - Illinois. Jake Odum - Indiana St.


See our Centers list...
See our Power Forwards list...
See our Small Forwards list
See our Shooting Guards list...

Players to watch in the NCAA Tournament. ...The Shooting Guards

Jimmer Freddette - BYU 6'2" 195 Senior. - Jimmer Fredette is a phenomenal scorer. He is a combo-guard that leads the nation at 28.5 points per game. He can create his own scoring opportunities off the dribble. Right handed. ...He is a tremendously accurate shooter (40% from three and .90% FT). Freddette is coming off a Mountain West Tournament where he had a 52 point game vs. New Mexico. In that game - he hit seven triples.  ...Good ball handler. ...He has long arms. ...Fredette has the ability to control his pace. …Not just a three point shooter. …Good with the ball in his hands - and capable of making plays at full speed. He has ability to make crazy, circus shots. ...He will jack some quick attempts but you live with it because he can light up the scoreboard like few ever have. Freddette is so popular - he is featured on CNN's website. 


Kawhi Leonard - San Diego St. 6'7" 225 Sophomore. ...I am sold on Kawhi Leonard! I could have listed him as a Small Forward, or Power Forward - but with his unique skill set that is highlighted by a scorer's instinct, ball-handling ability and rebounding prowess - I decided to place in him the Shooting Guard pool. Really - he is just a basketball player. Leonard has big hands and a nose for the ball. He is a SPECIAL talent where rebounding is concerned. There are very few players who have what I call "suction cups" (for hands). Leonard is one of the few. His ability to grab balls sticks out like animation in reality. Imagine a player with guard-like dribbling ability that can get you nearly eleven boards per game and you begin to understand the rare value in Kawhi Leonard. He also finishes in transition, and powers through opponents with an advanced dribble-drive game. ...He has more assists than turnovers. Leonard's weakness to date is his three-point shooting (.240 career). ...If you wonder why San Diego State has been unusually good this season, Kawhi Leonard is the biggest factor. 

DeShaun Thomas - Ohio St. 6'7" 221 Freshman - Thomas only plays an average of 14 minutes per game off the bench as a Buckeye freshman but his efficiency and past accomplishments lead us to believe he may be the best Shooting Guard (or Small Forward) prospect in this tournament when we look back at it in five years. ...Thomas was Mr. Basketball 2010 in Indiana where he was a McDonald's All-American. He is an NBA athlete that can score and rebound at a high rate. ...Thomas won two Indiana state high school championships (2008 & 2009). 

Mario Little - Kansas 6'6" 218 Senior ...It says something about how deep and good Kansas is when a guy that plays a shade over 14 minutes per game can be a possible NBA player. No else seems to be on Little - but I've seen enough to be convinced he has a shot. Little shoots 50% FG, 77% FT, and 39% 3-Pt. ...As a guard - he helps on the boards, and he has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. ...He may play only a handful of minutes but when he is on the court - there is no drop-off for the Jayhawks. ...Little was arrested in December (2010) on four counts of battery, two counts of criminal damage to property, and one count of criminal trespassing. 


Jeremy Lamb - Connecticut 6'5" 185 Freshman - Lamb is an athletic guard with ball-handling skills. He averages ten points, and four rebounds per game as a sidekick to Kemba Walker. Lamb stands out for his leaping ability and speed. He looks like a track athlete. He has a feel for the game - evidenced by his solid 1.19-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He could improve his deep shooting (only .321 from beyond arc). It will interesting to see how Lamb blossoms once Walker moves on to the NBA, and Lamb becomes a bigger part of the offense. 

Austin Freeman - Georgetown 6'3" 235 Senior. - Freeman is as steady as they come. The First-Team All Big East selection is a shot-making guard with a wide lower-base that allows him get good position. He scores 18 points per game on a nice 49% FG shooting. He makes his free throws; this season leading the Big East at 87%. ...Freeman is solidly built, and he can withstand contact and still hit a shot. He owns a 1.41:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He also can knock down the three-ball (37% this season). ...He improved his scoring average every year at Georgetown.


C.J. Wilcox - Washington 6'5" 190 Freshman - Wilcox has enjoyed an increased role in recent Washington games and he has emerged as a real prospect. Wilcox is a good shooter that is a threat beyond the arc (.399). He also knocks down his free throws (.828), and has more assists than turnovers. For the season - Wilcox is only averaging eight points per contest but in the last five games he is scoring 13.5 ppg. He was recently named to the Pac-10 All-Freshman team. ...Wilcox scored 24 points in the second half of a win over UCLA (March 3, 2011). 


Billy White - San Diego St. 6'8" 235 Senior. - It is probably a stretch to list White as a Shooting Guard (he is a SF on offense) but from a defensive standpoint - White often ends up guarding the opponent's best scorer. And without fail - White has defended well - even when chasing smaller guys that should be quicker. Last season, White led the Mountain West Conference in field goal percentage. He is excellent around the hoop. He's not the scorer that Cedric Ceballos was - but White reminds me of Ceballos with his ability to finish in transition, and work the baseline. White's shooting numbers are solid across the board FG: .567, FT: .750, 3-Pt: .333 (only 8-24 this season). 

Travis Leslie - Georgia 6'4" 205 Junior. - Leslie is a supreme athlete. He's the kind of kid with a high ceiling that will likely improve dramatically when his skills catch up with his elite running and jumping gifts (think Shannon Brown). ...Right handed. He is quick and gets steals at a high rate. …Slasher. Gets to the hoop and scores. Has decent vision - and will drop a nifty backdoor assist. …He is great in the open court. …He can knock down a mid-range jump shot. However - from deep, his percentages are low (.317 this season). Leslie's free throw shooting has improved each season and is now over 80%. The upside of Leslie makes him a guy I would pay particularly close attention to. 


Sean Kilpatrick - Cincinnati 6'4" 215 Freshman - Kilpatrick was among the best freshman in the Big East this season. He was a heralded recruit that played in the 2010 Jordan Brand Classic high-school all-star game.  ...Kilpatrick can shoot it - hitting on 39% of his three-point attempts this season. ...And he can also move without the ball - often finishing off timely cuts. ...Owns a nice hesitation dribble. Right handed. Kilpatrick is 21 years old. 


John Jenkins - Vanderbilt 6'4" 215 Sophomore - Jenkins unfortunately is not 100% headed into the NCAA Tournament.  He is fighting a toe injury. Jenkins is a shooter/scorer that reminds of a slower Monta Ellis. Jenkins led the SEC in scoring (19.5 ppg) and 3-pointers made (96). ...He can really stroke the ball 46% FG, 89% FT, and 40% 3-pt. 


Tre'Von Willis - UNLV 6'4" 195 Senior. - If you are looking for a kid with some swagger - look no further than Willis. The Runnin' Rebel Senior has battled back from knee surgery to be a big-shot maker and team leader. He averaged 14.5 points and 3.8 assists per game in conference play this season. ...Willis will accept a challenge, and he has a variety of skills. He shoots just enough from beyond the arc to keep defenses honest. He owns a good 1.69-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. ...Willis played his freshman season at Memphis, and then sat out a year after transferring to Vegas. 

Orlando Johnson - UCSB 6'5" 205 Jr. - If you've not heard of Orlando Johnson - he would be reason enough to watch UCSB in their opening round matchup with Florida. Johnson is a skilled scorer that shoots the ball well, and gets to the free throw line. He ranked 15th in the country this season in points per game at 21.1. ..He has a scorer's mentality - and thus jacks some ill-advised shots but he also has knack for making many off-balance, tough looks. His shooting numbers are solid at 48% FG, 81% FT, 41 % 3-pt. 


Khris Middleton - Texas A&M 6'7" 215 Sophomore. - Middleton is the first in what is sure to be a line of players that channel Kevin Durant. He doesn't have Durant's size - but his body movements are similar. He is a scorer that has a quick release on his shot. …He uses a quick jab step and one dribble to get space for an accurate jumper. ...He plays mostly under control. He is an impressive offensive player. Smooth. Right handed. ...Could be a better ball handler. 


William Buford - Ohio State. 6'5" 205 Junior. ...Buford is the classic wing, jump shooting, guard that will certainly land in the NBA. If you give him minutes - he's going to produce double-figure scoring. I wish he would mix in more drives to the rim but at the same time - Buford is very good at what he does well; jump shoot you to death. His shooting numbers are impressive at 47%FG, 84% FT, 43% 3-pt. ...He also can handle the ball a bit as indicated by his solid 1.63:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. 


Point Guards
Small Forwards
Power Forwards









  

Players to watch in the NCAA Tournament. ...The Power Forwards

Derrick Williams - Arizona 6'8" 241 Sophomore - Williams is a strong one-on-one player that can score and get to the free throw line with regularity. …He is too quick to be guarded by Power Forwards yet too powerful to be guarded by small forwards. …He doesn't pass the ball much. …Mostly a determined, confident scorer. He has an uncanny ability to make three point shots. He is shooting 60% from THREE POINT RANGE! ...He has a quick second jump. 

Jared Sullinger - Ohio St. 6'8" 262 Freshman - Sullinger has been an impact freshman for the #1 ranked Buckeyes. He is a big, wide bodied low post scorer that entered college prepared to be a BIG man. He is remarkably fundamentally sound for his age. This season his averages are 17 points (53% FG) and ten boards. ...While there is considerable hype around Sullinger - one must keep in mind - this is a down year overall for talent. The truth is - Sullinger's game is below the rim and he turns it over more than he assists. His free throw percentage is 70%.  


Thomas Robinson - Kansas 6'9" 237 Sophomore - Robinson is a hyper-athletic front court playmaker that has the athleticism necessary to compete on the NBA hardwood. He is a fantastic offensive rebounder and energy guy. His efficiency in limited minutes translates well to the NBA. On the downside, most of Robinson's success comes from his athleticism and power rather than from skill. He is a poor free throw shooter at 50%, and he also has more than two turnovers for every assist. ...Sadly, Robinson's mother died January 22nd. Read an excellent feature here.

Kenneth Faried - Morehead St. 6'8" 225 Senior - Faried is among the greatest rebounders in the history of the college game. This season he scored 17.6 points while snatching 14.5 rebounds. He is a good athlete but his rebounding is more about his determination than some 'out of this world' athleticism. There have been Dennis Rodman comparisons but I don't see the same degree of track-star speed, hops, and energy that "The Worm" had. ...Faried finishes ally-oops and rebounds outside his area.  ...Good shot blocker. ...Poor FT shooter (57%) with more turnovers than assists. ...If you would like to CARE about Faried - read this.


Laurence Bowers - Missouri 6'8" 210 Junior. ...Bowers is that guy in the paint that seems to make plays that matter. He has good instincts and good hands. He is solid in several areas. He rebounds, defends, runs the floor, and also has just enough passing ability to fit into a team concept. His career field goal percentage is 54% and he shoots a very nice 75% from the line. He sometimes gets lost amid the up-tempo, guard dominated Missouri offense but Bowers is a legitimate complimentary player that makes any team better. ...He is known to be a tough kid. ...Right handed. 

Markieff Morris - Kansas 6'10" 245 Junior. ...Markieff is the less ballyhooed of the "Kansas Twins" but he is a formidable player himself. He scores 13.6 ppg, and grabs 8.2 rebounds each outing. Morris is shooting 60% from the field this season and also has the skill to stretch the defense with spot-up three point shooting (40%). He could be a better free throw shooter and he has more turnovers than assists but Morris is nevertheless as solid as they come. 


Gorgui Dieng - Louisville 6'10" 215 Sophomore. Dieng popped up on our radar due to his efficient play in limited minutes. While the sample size of data on Dieng is small - he shows as much potential as any young raw BIG. ...From Senegal - Dieng is shooting 60% from the field and he has shown the ability to hit the offensive glass with ferocity. He impacts the game by blocking shots. 


Tobias Harris - Tennessee 6'8" 226 Freshman. ...Harris is a right handed forward that has a knack for being in the right position despite his freshman status. He is presently more of a FOUR than a THREE. …He has a post-game but he also has the ability to handle the ball a bit and go "coast-to-coast". ...Was a McDonald's All-American. …Suffered a broken foot in Spring 2010 during the McDonald's game. ...High school: 2009-10 New York’s Mr. Basketball. His grandfather is a Lt. Col. ...Cousin of Channing Frye. 

Terrence Jones - Kentucky 6'9" 230 Freshman. Jones has an NBA body and he plays above the rim. …Wide shoulders. …Lefty. …A superior athlete than almost every opponent he faces. His shooting numbers however are not good (43% FG, 66 % FT, 30 % 3-pt FG), which is why I rate him lower than most who are ranking players. ...He defends on the ball well - easily blocking shots of smaller SF's. …He will finish ally-oop plays. ...McDonald's All-American.  


Sam Dower - Gonzaga 6'9" 248 Freshman. ...Dower shoots the ball at impressive percentages (57% FG, 80%FT).  He is a lefty that will rebound in traffic and provide some scoring in the low post due to his impressive footwork. He blocks shots at a high rate (in a small sample size). Dower was a red-shirt last season. 


Terrence Jennings - Louisville 6'9" 220 Junior. ...Jennings is an NBA caliber athlete that provides energy as a rebounder and shot blocker. He is shooting 57% FG for his career at Louisville. Most impressive are his 154 blocked shots. He is a strong finisher even with one hand. …Right handed. …From Sacramento, CA but finished his 2006-07 season at Mt. Zion Christian Academy in Durham, N.C. ...His cousin C.J. Wallace played for the Seattle Seahawks. 

Rick Jackson - Syracuse 6'9" 240 Senior. ...Rick Jackson is a BIG with good hands. He was the 2010-11 Big East Defensive Player of the Year. …A lefty, Jackson rebounds well, and recovers quickly defensively. …Controlled tips of the ball at the rim are a specialty for Jackson. …He is shooting 59% FG for his career with the Orange. ...This season, Jackson added the ability to get assists, showing that his game is still evolving. He averages 13 points and nearly eleven boards per outing. ...What he does not do well is shoot free throws. Jackson is a putrid 50% for his career. 


Trey Thompkins - Georgia 6'9" 247 Junior. ...Thompkins has an NBA body and a high ceiling. We rank him lower than most due to his inconsistent shooting. He scores 16 points per game while snatching 7.5 rebounds per contest. He hits mid-post jumpers and has the inside-outside versatility of a young Lamar Odom. …Thompkins is right handed. ...Soft touch. …Hits the offensive glass. …Helps from the weak side as a shot blocker. …Reacts quickly. 

Ricardo Ratliffe - Missouri 6'8" 240 Junior.  - Ratliffe is a rugged power paint player that landed at Mizzou after being the most sought after juco recruit of 2010. He was rated as the top junior college player by Rivals.com as a sophomore. This season Ratliffe is averaging 10.5 points per game on 57% FG shooting. He also grabs over six boards per game. He has more assists than turnovers (slightly) which is a good quality for any player.


Carleton Scott - Notre Dame 6'8" 218 Senior. ...Scott can shoot the ball (49% FG, 84% FT) while still rebounding at a high enough rate to be effective. He has some ability to make plays off one or two dribbles either by scoring himself or setting up a teammate. ...He has a nice turn around mid-range jump shot as well as the ability to hit a three-point shot. ...He uses the ball-fake well. 


See our Point Guards list
See our Small Forwards list. 
See our Shooting Guards list...

Players to watch in the NCAA Tournament. ...The Small Forwards

Each year we look deeply at the best players in the NCAA Tournament at each of the five positions. Now in our 13th year of  independently scouting college players in regard to their NBA potential, we can safely say that this is a down year for elite talent. However there is no shortage of players who should be able to carve out nice professional careers.

What makes our lists different from others? Simply stated - it is that we have studied individual player efficiency in the NBA for more than twenty years. We assess the landscape of the respective position in the NBA which allows us to forecast with greater accuracy the potential success of a college player at the next level. With no affiliation to any player agents or sponsored agendas - our lists unapologetically differ greatly from mass media sites. We watch full games across a broad spectrum of teams which allows us to have a feel for players beyond simply reading and reacting to their statistics.

This season, like most, the bulk of potential NBA talent lies in the Shooting Guard (two), Small Forward (three), and Power Forward (four) spots.  Point Guard (one), and Center (five) continue a recent trend of less depth - giving increased value to those who excel at these crucial floor positions.

So as we dive into the first player list - let's start by looking at an unusually deep group of Small Forwards.

Draymond Green - Michigan St. 6'7" 230 Junior.. ...One of the most intriguing, and smartest prospects in the NCAA is Draymond Green. Green is undersized at Power Forward but I see him having no problem being an NBA Small Forward at 6'7". ...Any lack of height is overcome with his savvy, and leadership. You do not see many forwards that own a positive assist-to-turnover ratio AND have the ability to rebound the way Green does.  Green - in his career to date as a Spartan -  has 274 assists and 161 turnovers. ...His shooting percentage is down this year but his scoring has increased to 12 points per game. He grabs 8.6 rebounds per game. ...Led Saginaw High School to Michigan Class A State Championship two straight years as a junior and senior respectively. ...In a recent 2011 NBA Draft consensus ranking - Green emerged as the 96th rated player. We think that is WAY off. Green is much better than 96th - and we expect him to be a "riser" on NBA Draft boards as the mass media sites start to understand the quality of Green's skill set.

Marcus Morris - Kansas 6'8" 225 Junior. ...Morris is one half of the "Kansas Twins". He and brother Markieff are  hard working Philadelphia-raised kids that bring skill and toughness to a team. Marcus was recently named the Big 12 Player of the Year. He is great in transition and can finish plays at the rim. In half-court sets - he is patient and smart. He can step out and hit a three point shot. He takes charges. He is alert. His combination of strength and quickness in face up situations vs. power players is very nice. …While not the playmaker that Rodney McCray was - Morris nevertheless reminds me of McCray with his ability to handle the ball or post up. Both are the kind of player that holds a team together with their ability and no nonsense approach. Morris is an excellent rebounder and he shoots 56% FG (career!). Led the Prep Charter High School Eagles to back-to-back Pennsylvania state titles in 2007 and 2006. In `07 he hit the game winning shot in the state championship game.

Jordan Hamilton - Texas 6'7" 226 Sophomore. ...Hamilton is as much of an "instant offense" guy as there is in NCAA. He is a stone cold scorer. He has deep range but he can hurt you with a back-to-basket post up or a midrange jumper. …He helps as a rebounder. …He stays in plays and will run down opponents to block their shots. ...He uses the shot fake well.

Jimmy Butler - Marquette - 6'7" 220 Senior. ...His coach (Buzz Williams) calls him the hardest working kid he's ever coached. …Jimmy Butler is a late bloomer that has improved by leaps and bounds since starting his collegiate career at a Junior College. …He rarely takes a bad shot - which is reflected in his career 51% FG shooting. ...He is smart - with a 1.6-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio (career). ...He is a good athlete with hang-time in his jumping ability. ...This season Butler averages 16 points and six rebounds per game. His three-point shooting ability is a key part of his evolving game. He doesn't shoot a high volume of threes but he make a great percentage (.409) of the long ball shots he throws up.

Jereme Richmond - Illinois - 6'7" 205 Freshman. ...Richmond makes the list based on his potential more than what he actually has accomplished to date. He was 2009-10 Illinois Mr. Basketball, and a McDonald's All American. He is best at scoring off the cut, or in one-on-one situations in the mid-post. The biggest detriment to his success at the next level might be his inconsistent (to non-existent) outside shooting ability. The rest of the ball skills are there however. He has excellent vision for a player with a scoring mentality - which makes him a candidate to break-out at any moment.

Elias Harris - Gonzaga 6'7" 240 Sophomore. ...Elias Harris has toughness and he can get to the rim with the dribble. He shoots 53% FG (career) and he rebounds. …Harris is from Germany and he played in the European Championships before coming to Gonzaga. …He likes to drive and will pass up an open jumper if there is any hint of a chance to take it to the hole. However, he does keep defenses honest with his three-point shooting. His .393 three-point field goal percentage is impressive considering his strength. …Well conditioned and seems to have energy when others are spent. On the downside, Harris has more turnovers than assists and he needs to improve as a ball handler and decision maker.

Terrence Ross - Washington 6'6" 190 Freshman. ...Ross is a scorer that will certainly see an increased role at Washington in the coming years. He can really put the ball in the hole as a perimeter scoring threat. But what makes him unique is that he is the rare three-point jacking star that also shares the ball. His 1.57-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is rock solid. Heading into the 2011 NCAA Tournament - Ross, in limited minutes, is riding a string of three straight games with double figure points. In the Pac-10 tourney - he shot over 50% in each game and was a significant cog in the Huskies cutting down the nets.

Kyle Singler - Duke 6'8" 230 Senior. ...Singler is a scrappy Small Forward that never ceases to amaze with his smarts, boundless energy, and relentless hustle. He shoots the three, he rebounds, he's a good free throw shooter. ...Singler seems to be mentally a step ahead of other players. He reads offensive situations and then makes the proper cut at the precise time to help his team. He is unselfish. …Limited in taking players off the dribble but he does uses crafty shot fakes and hesitations to get free. …Focused. ...High hoops I.Q. …Singler is Duke's most well rounded player. He was the 2010 ACC Tournament MVP.

Jeffrey Taylor - Vanderbilt 6'7" 225 Junior. ...Taylor does some things that separate him from the average wing prospect. For starters - he takes charges and is an excellent defender. …He is also relatively unselfish - passing ahead as a rule. …He is a good athlete with quick and explosive jumping ability. ...He has improved as a three-point shooter this season - with a respectable .345 three-point shooting percentage. ...He has moments of inconsistent offensive play - but his defensive versatility is not dissimilar to former NBA lock-down wing Doug Christie. This season - Taylor averages 15 points and five rebounds per game while dishing two and a half assists per contest. ...Taylor is from Sweden. He played for their National Team in the 2008 Under-20 European Division B Championships, where he averaged 19.4 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists in eight games. ...Taylor's father, Jeff, played at Texas Tech before playing in the NBA for Houston and Detroit.

Harrison Barnes - North Carolina 6'8" 210 Freshman. ...Barnes has NBA scouts mostly drooling over his scoring ability in an athletic package. He has come on strong down the stretch of his freshman season highlighted by a 40-point outburst vs. Clemson in the ACC Tournament. What concerns me still is that Barnes  has mostly done his damage from the perimeter - showing a reluctance to get to the free throw line consistently. He also has more turnovers than assists. ...He is an excellent transition player that can finish above the rim. ...Right handed with ability to drive and score or hit a perimeter jump shot. A former McDonald's All-American.

Tyler Honeycutt - UCLA 6'8" 188 Sophomore ...Honeycutt is a kid that I think will improve dramatically as he matures. He has all the tools but at this point - he makes youthful enthusiasm mistakes just enough to keep him from being listed as an elite prospect. ...He can hit a mid-range jumper. …He processes very quickly and makes plays at NBA speed. …Right handed. He will help as a rebounder by garnering boards outside his area. …Has good vision. …He runs as well as anyone.

Jae Crowder - Marquette 6'6" 225 Junior. ...Crowder's height suggests he would be best as a shooting guard but he plays much bigger than his listed 6'6". Crowder is in his first year at Marquette after being the National Junior College Player of the Year. He really takes care of the ball and seldom makes mistakes - as evidenced by his 53 assists vs. just 23 turnovers. His shooting is accurate - particularly from the top of the key - where he nails three point shots (.367 3-pt FG%). Crowder's father Corey played in the NBA for the Utah Jazz. 

Justin Brownlee - St. John's 6'7" 220 Senior. ...Brownlee is a player that I feel is largely slept on. This is mostly due to him being a 'tweener'. Is he a Power Forward or a Small Forward? He doesn't shoot it well enough to earn consistent minutes on the perimeter - and he is undersized to bang inside. That said, the kid can play. He has an advanced ability to make plays for himself and teammates - especially when isolated on the high post. He has an NBA body - and he can makes mid-range shots. He moves the ball - and sees the floor very well - often winding up with assists off the dribble. …Has a dependable turn around, fade away jump shot that is hard to guard. ...He rebounds outside his area. Quick enough that he will take almost any opposing PF off the dribble. ...Powerful enough to take contact and still hit a shot.

Tim Abromaitis - Notre Dame - 6'8" 235 Senior. ...One of the game's deadliest shooters is Tim Abromaitis. He simply cannot be left alone. This season he hit 72 three point shots at 42%. ...He may not be able to guard Small Forwards in the NBA. Foot speed is a concern. That said, Abromaitis is a kid that understands basketball (his father played at UConn and brother Jason played at Yale). He has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio, and he moves well without the ball. ...Deep range. This season he averaged 15 points and six rebounds. ...There is always room for a smart shooter somewhere.

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See our Point Guards list...

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Delusions in scouting. Best point guard debate. Efficiency matters.

A hot debate in the basketball world right now is taking place daily. Who is the best point guard in the NBA? I've heard some touting Deron Williams, while others prefer Chris Paul (pictured at right). Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, and Derrick Rose usually get a mention, and now Russell Westbrook is also getting some love from media members who work the NBA beat.


Those of you who read this space with any frequency know that we like to make our decisions on such topics by being, what Len Elmore refers to as, 'data informed' - which is opposed to 'data driven'. 


Some talent scouts forgo numbers altogether and opt to opine with just a 'feel', or gut reaction. The problem with any gut reaction in evaluating players is that we all, as humans, have emotions attached. Our eyes trick us. Our hearts lead us astray. ...Let me explain.


Visual delusion comes about in evaluation when a scout sees a player with outstanding athleticism and flash. High jumping players, explosive players, or players with Curly Neal ball-handling skills vault to the head of too many "big boards" simply because some scouts are reading too much into what their eyes easily see. 


It is easy to fall prey to the high-flying player who ALMOST pulls off the traffic dunk that "would've blown the roof off". Instead - he blows the dunk. Inevitably there is a long rebound which leads to a fast break for the opposition. That is a net of minus four points. ...I despise that. Yet there would surely be witnesses who stated they "loved the player's explosion" and "his ability to attack the rim". 

There were smart people who saw highlights of USC's ridiculously explosive dunk machine - Harold Miner (pictured at left) - and they assumed he was going to be a star. Some called him the next Michael Jordan. 


Yi Jianlian was drafted two positions before Joakim Noah in the 2007 NBA Draft. Scouts were correct in only one regard. Yi IS more athletic when it comes to a sprint race or a jumping contest. But of course there are no sprint races or high-jump bars in basketball. And we can all agree now that Noah - due to his basketball skills, toughness and grit - is the far superior player. 


There are scouts and smart people right now that have the gall to call dribbling wizard Kalin Lucas, of Michigan State, the best point guard in the Big Ten. Nevermind that Lucas presently has 25 assisted baskets and only one less turnover. Nevermind that Lucas seems incapable of finishing any play that involves him getting to the rim. He makes million dollar moves with his ball handling to penetrate the paint but the result is often not worth a dime.


My only guess is that those who argue of favor of Lucas have either not seen DeMetri McCamey (Illinois), Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin), and E'Twaun Moore (Purdue) - OR - those Lucas fans are suffering from the "herd mentality". If one ESPN analyst says "Kalin Lucas is the best point guard in the Big Ten" it is bound to be repeated by those who actually have not subjected themselves to watching an entire Wisconsin game. 

ASIDE: Bo Ryan's Wisconsin teams play slow-ball. They are calculated and it honestly takes self-discipline for any hoops fan to get excited about seeing them play. I force myself to watch. And in so doing I have discovered that Taylor can coolly run a team AND make shots. 

As John Wooden so famously stated, "Never confuse activity for achievement." And I would add from Chuck D of Public Enemy, "Don't Believe the Hype!". 

If it is not our vision fooling us then it is our hearts that get in the way. When an underachiever achieves - our hearts feel good for the underachiever. Human nature kicks in and suddenly the less efficient player that works hard and scraps is getting more minutes from the coach. Now - in no way - am I saying that hard work and scrappiness is a bad thing or that it should not be rewarded.

I AM SAYING that often - coaches and scouts go too far with their love for an underdog (pictured at left). A decent example locally would be Darnell Jackson of the Sacramento Kings. He was not expected to make the team this season. But anyone who watched him play in the preseason - I'm sure - would think that Jackson overachieved. He knocked down a face up jumper here and there. He set effective screens. He dove on the floor. He scrapped and worked hard - and next thing you know - Darnell Jackson made the final roster for the 2010-11 season. 


Our hearts felt (feel) good about Jackson. But without data to inform us - it would be easy to over-value Jackson's worth. The 'data informed' know that Jackson has major holes in his game. He turns the ball over more than four times per assist. He is a poor free throw shooter (64% career) and most importantly he presently sports a .342 efficiency rating (EFR) which would have ranked 78th of the 85 Power Forwards that played enough minutes to be eligible in last season's final regular season stat audit. 


That Jackson has actually taken away minutes at various times this year from better, more efficient (yet less enthusiastic) players in Jason Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins, and Carl Landry is, to me, an example of an evaluation based too much on heart. I don't dislike Jackson at all. I just have a hard time believing he should have played over 20 minutes in three games already this season. 


In my evaluations of players - I've begun asking myself - "Do I feel like I have to root for this player to make the NBA or get minutes?". If the answer is yes - I'm immediately looking deeper at data to see if there is justification for him being in the NBA. You can keep ONE guy that you root for on the end of the bench (Jeremy Lin) but never more than one. 

Adding to our delusion, there is the 24 hour sports news cycle that we live in. ESPN (ABC) and CBS are the current homes for college basketball and the teams they feature are exposed more than teams in smaller conferences. And it is not just their actual games being played that are responsible for the exposure. Trust me on this one. I work in television. What makes the "air" is what is good for the network. 


In other words, if two plays are equally spectacular - but one occurred on a Saturday by a New Mexico State player - and the other happened during an ESPN televised Saturday game by a Big East, Villanova player, - the exposure advantage goes to the `Nova kid. His play will be seen repeatedly on nationally televised ESPN Sports Center, and on ESPN2, and ESPN-U. Sports talk shows such as PTI, Around the Horn, and the horrid Sports Nation will add fuel to the fire. ESPN Radio will chat up the player and talk glowingly of his highlight. 


The "build-up" occurs because there will be another game coming up on ESPN with the same Villanova player in it. It makes sense for ESPN to promote the players who play in the conferences that the network has contracts with. Meanwhile - the New Mexico State player likely gets no love outside of his region. 


The more we observe a player and allow his game to seep into our consciousness the easier it is to be comfortable with that player. Again, human nature. If player A is slightly better than player B but the scout saw player B play more often, and be seemingly constantly on National TV, chances are that the scout will gravitate toward the player he is more familiar with even when the data says to do otherwise.


And don't forget ESPN's presence on the internet. Chad Ford infamously helped a nation believe in 2003 that Darko Milicic should have been drafted before Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. 



If Landry Fields (current New York Knicks rookie sensation - pictured at left) played in the Big East rather than the Pac 10 last season, I would argue that he would have likely been a more well known commodity and he would have never slipped to pick 39 in the 2010 NBA Draft.  His team, Stanford, didn't make the NCAA Tournament and his exposure was simply not on par with lesser players who balled in the SEC, ACC, or Big East. 


This media monopoly of the airwaves should NEVER be underestimated. It affects even the smartest of scouts who simply cannot isolate themselves enough to avoid the hype machine   known as ESPN that infiltrates any sports fan's life. 


The Efficiency Rating (EFR) is my slice of undeniable truth. However, the statistical formula that is so often referenced here has holes too. It is pure science. Points scored, plus assists, plus steals, plus rebounds, plus blocked shots minus missed field goals, minus missed free throws, minus turnovers - all divided by the number of minutes played. ... Strictly numbers.

Much like a hoe, the EFR is a tool.

The EFR is simply one part (a very BIG part) of the "tools" needed be 'data informed'. I believe in it because in 26 years of studying it - the EFR rarely fails. The most efficient teams win way more often than they lose. The EFR looks across a variety of measurable stats and levels the playing field between players who have played more minutes than others.  Perhaps the biggest key to the success of the EFR as a measuring tool lies in the use of figuring in turnovers and missed free throws which are simply overlooked too often in evaluation of players.


Efficiency isn't everything. Because the NBA and NCAA do not count, for example, charges taken, as a statistical category - the EFR has that proven positive attribute left out of the equation. The EFR does not allow for winning intangibles such as enthusiasm, professionalism, or willingness to be coached. The EFR does not account for solid, non-gambling defense, or the pass that leads to the pass that gets the assist.


ASIDE: For the record, we did add 'charges drawn' to the EFR formula once just to see how much it would raise a player's efficiency. Using Anderson Varejao's league leading standard in 2006-07 of one charge taken every 23 minutes, we were able to estimate that by season's end - a league-leading caliber charge taker, could raise his EFR by about .030. 


The EFR is not perfect. That is where a "feel" or plain old common sense has to be part of the process in evaluation. And there is no substitute for watching games. It is the combo of EFR and detailed, focused observation of games that leads to more accurate scouting.

Again - I want to stress that I love players with "heart". I love players that hustle. I want good guys on my team. That stated, the words of club owner Billy Sparks (pictured at left) in Purple Rain must be heeded. "This is a bid-ness! And you can't be too far gone to see that."


So give me players with the skill, talent, efficiency and athleticism it takes to produce WINS. The opposition can have the high jumper that rarely gets assists, or the "defensive specialist" that can't score to save his life. The other team can have that "point guard" that shoots with a full shot clock before making one pass. 


Which brings us back to the current debate about the best point guard in the NBA. (You thought I forgot?). The efficiency rating sees it this way:


#1 Chris Paul .741
#2 Steve Nash .684
#3 Russell Westbrook .672
#4 Deron Williams .659
#5 Stephen Curry .619
#6 Derrick Rose .585
#7 Rajon Rondo .576
#8 Tony Parker .570
#9 Raymond Felton .565
#10 Jameer Nelson .564


With EFR not being the end all, be all - we apply some "feel" and common sense to the above top-ten list. Paul's lead in EFR is so big that I can't justify saying another player's intangibles make him worthy of being ranked higher than Paul. So I'll go with Paul as the best in the NBA right now. 

Russell Westbrook drives by Jordan Farmar. 

But while the EFR list has Nash at #2 - common sense tells me that Nash is not a great defender, and he also misses a game here and there to protect his health because he is older than most other NBA PG's. Russell Westbrook is close to Nash in EFR and he is a GREAT defender with no limitations on his total minutes. So I'll take Westbrook as the current #2. Deron Williams, I think, vaults over Nash as well at this point for similar reasons. 


The point of all this rambling is that there is no one specific set of statistics that will ever give you a definitive answer when evaluating players. Likewise - a scout should never go totally on feel without using data as a tool to help. 


The best talent evaluators are the scouts that can combine science and common sense and balance the media hype with a dose of reality through close, focused observation. 


...And that is today's word. 

Promo for G-Man's 2,000th game.