NBA Draft judgement; five years later.

2011 Draftees

You can judge an NBA Draft in the days after it is conducted if you like. It seems pointless to me. The truth is, none of us can predict the future. We are talking about young adults; young men in the age range of 18 to 23. I lived long enough to KNOW the unpredictably of the outcome for each individual. 

Draft report cards for 2016 will be produced. Media members, fans, and even some folks inside the basketball industry will continue to repeat uninformed comparisons. My favorite this year was that Buddy Hield "is J.J. Redick." 

In reality, where I prefer to dwell when it comes to player evaluation, Buddy Hield is a half-FOOT longer than Redick by wingspan. In 2016, details matter. Details have always mattered but in today's ultra-competitive world, let alone the NBA, you better be ELITE in your ability to pay attention to the details. 

A draft is the foundation. You can wheel and deal later. 

Every team should have a Draft plan. You need to know where each player is likely to be picked. It is all about getting value with each selection. Let's say you had three first round picks. Let's say those selections will be made at 15, 23, and 30. You must understand that if the guy you like fourth, overall on your draft board, is not likely to be picked until the late 20's, it makes no sense to pick that player using the 15th pick. That is what we call, wait for it... "premature edraftulation". 

You can get that player later at 23 if you play it safe, or you can gamble and try to get that guy at 30. So with selection 15 the prudent move is to pick another player you feel is the best guy that will certainly not be available when you pick again. 

The above scenario is just one of the reasons teams screw up in the NBA Draft. It may not be obvious 24 to 48 hours after a draft, but let that draft age five years and we can clearly see how present-day successful teams laid their foundation. 

In the 2011 NBA Draft, now ready to be judged, five NBA All-Stars were drafted. The group of five taken in 2011 are franchise pillars today. How about two guys that played in the NBA Finals? Kyrie Irving, the first pick in the 2011 NBA Draft by the World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers, and Klay Thompson who was selected eleventh from the previous year World Champion Golden State Warriors. The third All-Star? It was Kawhi Leonard, picked 15th for the 2014 World Champion San Antonio Spurs. 

Kyrie was at his best in the NBA Finals

Notice a pattern? 

If three of the guys picked in the top 15 were key contributors to NBA title runs, what about the other dozen teams that drafted in the top 15? How did they fare?

The results show that, in general, the teams that drafted a player that is still with them in 2016 did well and the others are now struggling (or continue to struggle). 

• Pick 2 - Derrick Williams - Minnesota. The T-Wolves were not a playoff team in 2015-16, and Williams has bounced from Minnesota to Sacramento to New York. 
• Pick 3 - Enes Kanter - Utah. The Jazz did not make the playoffs. Kanter successfully moved on via trade to Oklahoma City. 
• Pick 4 - Tristan Thompson - Cleveland. Thompson is the starting Center for the NBA Champs. 
• Pick 5 - Jonas Valanciunas - Toronto. Valanciunas is a key piece on a good playoff team.
• Pick 6 - Jan Vesely - Washington. The Wizards did not make the playoffs in 2015-16 and Vesely is out of the league. 
• Pick 7 - Bismack Biyombo - Charlotte. He was drafted by Sacramento for Charlotte on draft day. Biyombo signed as a free agent with Toronto for the 2015-16 season and played a supporting role in their success. 
• Pick 8 - Brandon Knight - Detroit. The Pistons made the Playoffs this season but not with Brandon Knight, He is on his third team, the Phoenix Suns. 
• Pick 9 - Kemba Walker - Kemba is a star guard for the Hornets who made the Playoffs. 
• Pick 10 - Jimmer Fredette - Sacramento. Milwaukee actually drafted Jimmer but he was being selected for the Kings. Fredette has played for four NBA teams, and is a fringe guy now that spent the majority of 2015-16 in the NBA D-League. 
• Pick 12 - Alec Burks - Utah. Burks was hurt last season but he has shown he can be a rotation player in the NBA. 
• Pick 13 - Markieff Morris - Phoenix. Despite his obvious skill, Markieff has had difficulty in human relations. Phoenix traded him to Washington. 
• Pick 14 - Marcus Morris - Houston. Marcus started the majority of the this season for the Detroit Pistons. He is on his third team after a stop in Phoenix. 

Isaiah was the steal of the 2011 NBA Draft

It seems pretty straight forward to me that the NBA Draft is really important to the chances of a team winning with consistency. 

The other two All-Stars from the 2011 Draft were Jimmy Butler (pick 30 by Chicago), and Isaiah Thomas (pick 60). The Celtics acquired Thomas via trade. 

In baseball, base hits matter. The same applies to the NBA Draft. There are a handful of solid to good players that were taken outside of the top 15 picks. Consider... Nikola Vucevic (16th), Iman Shumpert (17th), Tobias Harris (19th), Kenneth Faried (22nd), Nikola Mirotic (23rd), Reggie Jackson (24th), Cory Joseph (29th), Chandler Parsons (38th), and Jon Leuer (40th). 

The first round misses from the 2011 NBA Draft were off target for various reasons. We documented the top 15 above. Other poor selections in the first round were: Chris Singleton (18th by Washington), Nolan Smith (21st by Portland), JaJuan Johnson (27th by Boston). 

Our BasslineSpin / Hoop Obsession 2011 RE-Draft. (Done as if the draft were being held today, knowing what what know and trying to predict the future. Highly subjective)

1. Kawhi Leonard, 2. Klay Thompson, 3. Kyrie Irving, 4. Jimmy Butler, 5. Isaiah Thomas, 6. Kemba Walker, 7. Tobias Harris, 8. Enes Kanter, 9. Tristan Thompson, 10. Jonas Valanciunas, 11. Nikola Vucevic, 12. Reggie Jackson, 13. Bismack Biyombo, 14. Corey Joseph, 15. Brandon Knight, 16.  Chandler Parsons, 17. Kenneth Faried, 18. Jon Leuer, 19. LaVoy Allen, 20. Marcus Morris, 21. Alec Burks, 22. Nikola Mirotic, 23. Donatas Motiejunas, 24. Shelvin Mack, 25. Markieff Morris, 26. Derrick Williams, 27. Iman Shumpert, 28. E'Twaun Moore, 29. Norris Cole, 30. Kyle Singler. 

Selby a gamble, Nolan Smith a possibility.

Saunders is being slept on in our opinion. 

Damian Saunders of Duquesne brings a considerable amount of talent to the court. He is a right handed wing player (6'8" 215 lb.) that can score and defend well one on one. He was the A-10 Defensive Player of the Year as a junior. ...Team defense may take patience with Saunders because he gambles and digs for steals all the time. That said, he is VERY good at stealing the ball from his man. He has quick AND strong hands.  ...He recovers quickly. ...Not a good three point shooter by percentage (.304 career) but he will still jack threes. He is very good at getting to the hoop. He has some of that Tyreke Evans ability to get to the rim. He can finish with his left hand. ...Has the body of a SG. ...Capable of an acrobatic finish in transition (measured 36" vertical at Chicago Pre-Draft Combine - draftexpress.com). ...Poor shot selection. ...I'm of the opinion that Saunders overall skill set is being wildly underrated. I think he would be a steal in the second round.

Selby is athletic but low hoop IQ

Josh Selby was just shy of horrible at Kansas this past season. the 6'3" 195 lb. freshman guard shot only 37% FG and looked out of place on a team that moved the ball so well when he was not on the floor. However - Selby is a player. His gifts include quickness, leaping ability, and an aggressive nature. He is a right handed guard that can really score. He is quick and can take his man off the dribble. His three-ball looks pure. A lone bright spot at Kansas for Selby was a solid .362 percentage from beyond the college arc. ...He makes plays at NBA speed. ...Offensively, he is not a Point Guard. He had 63 assists and 60 turnovers in the numbers I could dig up for him in all of his games in the last year. He certainly has the quickness to guard opposing PG's. ...73% FT. ...A 2010 McDonald's All-American that also played in the Jordan Brand Classic. In fairness to Selby - he joined the K.U. team after missing the first nine games of the season (suspended for improper benefits). That can be tough to come in and suddenly just fit in. On the other hand - a player with a higher basketball IQ would have done a much better job than Selby did. ...I view him as a risky pick that could possibly be a huge reward. But in this case - I would let someone else gamble on him. I just don't see an 'overall type of player' (including off-the-court) that I would select.

Nolan Smith keeps improving. 

Nolan Smith dramatically improved since his freshman season. He became a confident leader at Duke and was named the ACC Player of the Year as a Senior. He led the conference in scoring at 20.6 points per game. ...He can score in a variety of ways. He is best at driving into the paint after a little hesitation dribble he uses. He is athletic enough to finish at the rim. ...He can hit a three-point shot (35% as a Senior). ...Had a career free throw percentage of .800. ...Smart player that uses screens well, and plays with poise and patience most of the time. His career assist-to-turnover ratio was 1.66 to 1. ...He participated with the USA Basketball Men's College Select Team in 2010. The Select Team trained with the U.S. Men's Senior National Team in Las Vegas and New York in preparation for the 2010 World Championship. ...As a high school senior, Smith averaged 22.1 ppg., 4.6 rpg., 4.1 apg. and 3.2 spg. to help Oak Hill to a 40-1 record, tying the school’s all-time season high for wins, and a final No. 1 spot in the USA Today 2007 Super 25 national rankings. ...Son of the late Derek Smith.

Hazell is already 25 years old but he could help. 

Jeremy Hazell is a 6'5", 185 lb. scoring guard that can get hot and hit shots of all varieties. He was among the handful of players I watched that I thought had an unquestionable NBA game. What I mean by that is that the things I saw Hazell do at Seton Hall were all moves that would also fly in an NBA contest. …He is athletic, he has deep, deep range on his jump shot and he showed signs of "clutchness". He averaged 19.8 points per game this season. …Great body control and great speed. …Quick to shoot. …Has coast-to-coast ability. …Finishes at the rim. …Has enough of a handle to create for himself. ...75% free throw shooter (career). ..Finds a way to score. ...On the downside, Hazell is a volume shooter that made only 42% of his career field goal attempts. He also had more turnovers than assists and he is already 25 years old. ...Hazell was robbed and shot in December 2010. Read this story.

Jackson is a good defensive BIG

Rick Jackson is a BIG with good hands that blocked 2.5 shots per game this season on his way to being named the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. While the guards on his team hog the spotlight - Jackson is in the back doing the dirty work and doing it well. …A lefty, standing 6'10" and weighing in at 246 lbs., Jackson rebounds well, and recovers quickly defensively. He rebounded in traffic as well as any BIG in the college game. …Controlled tips of the ball at the rim are a specialty for Jackson. He has a nice drop step half-hook that he uses to score effectively in the low post. …He shot 59% FG for his career with the Orange. ...This season, Jackson averaged 13 points and 10.6 boards per outing. ...What he does not do well is shoot free throws. Jackson is a putrid 51% for his career. He also had more turnovers than assists.

Harris rises on big boards. ...Profiles on Willis, White, Thomas, & Hoffarber

Harris is a safe pick.

As a freshman Tobias Harris averaged over 15 points and seven rebounds per game at Tennessee. ...Harris is a right handed forward that has a knack for being in the right position. He is presently more of a FOUR than a THREE. I say this because he shot just 30% from beyond the college arc, and because he had more turnovers than assists. ...He also has a large backside that may keep him from being able to defend SF's in the NBA. ...He gets traffic rebounds. He uses his off-hand well. …He has a post-game but he also has the ability to handle the ball a bit and go "coast-to-coast". ...Composed. ...Was a McDonald's All-American. …Suffered a broken foot in Spring 2010 during the McDonald's game. ...High school: 2009-10 New York’s Mr. Basketball. His grandfather is a Lt. Col. ...Cousin of Channing Frye.

It appears that Tre'Von Willis is getting no love from any NBA teams. I have not seen his name associated with any workouts. That's too bad. I believe Willis is worth a look. He is a right handed guard that knows how to play. I wish he was bigger and quicker but he finds a way to be efficient. He was injured and then suspended from his UNLV team for a misdemeanor domestic dispute arrest. …Willis brings it. He is unselfish - which is seldom said of a team's leading scorer. Willis averaged 13.2 points per game as a Senior for the Runnin' Rebels. He also contributed 3.5 rebounds per game, while dishing 3.6 assists per contest. ...He raised his assist-to-turnover ratio in each season at UNLV.  Willis had minor knee surgery in early August 2010.

White likes to wolf.

Billy White is an NBA athlete that shot 60% FG for his career at San Diego State. He struggles with his perimeter shooting for a Small Forward. he shot 34% from beyond the college arc this season but he only attempt 24 3-point shots. ...He is an outstanding defender that talks a little trash and plays with a swagger. …He runs well and can finish in transition. …Left handed. …Reacts quickly. …Can be out of control on offense. He averaged 10 points, 4 rebounds and 1.6 assists on a good San Diego State team.

Malcolm Thomas has a quickness advantage over most Power Forwards he faces. He averaged 11 points, eight rebounds, two assists, and two blocked shots per game this season past for San Diego State. …Thomas has long arms (his standing reach is 8' 11.5" - draftexpress.com). He shot a solid 53.6% FG in 2010-11. …He has good vision despite having more career turnovers than assists at SDSU. ...He runs the floor well and is a good offensive rebounder. He will rebound in traffic. ...Can draw fouls in the mid-post. ...Right handed. ...He is only a 58% free throw shooter for his career.

Is Hoffarber athletic enough?

Blake Hoffarber is a three-point shooter that also can pass the ball well. He averaged 13.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game as a Minnesota Senior. He has outstanding vision, and he reads defenses well. …Left handed. 80% free throw shooter (career) - but he rarely gets to the line. ...Minnesota’s career record holder for three-point field goals with 279. ...He has a quick release on his shot. He shot just 44% FG for his career at Minnesota. ...Smart kid that was a 2011 Academic All-American. 2007 Mr. Basketball in Minnesota.

Kemba is winner. Plus - Thompson, Dunn, Hurtt & Balbay

Kemba "All I Do Is Win!" Walker

Kemba Walker was the biggest reason that Connecticut won the NCAA Championship. He is a small guard with the ability to create his own shot due to his fabulous footwork. He owns a 39.5" max. vert. (DraftExpress.com), and has great speed, and ball-handling skill. …Not afraid to go to the hole. …He competes. …Stays in plays defensively. …Crafty. Good in transition. …Can make a play one on one in crunch time. ...He has a nice stroke that is consistent and reliable. ...Quick hands. ...Alert. He will be among the steals leaders wherever he plays. ...He uses his off hand well (left). …Willing to accept a challenge. ...From the Bronx, NY.

Walker played for the USA Basketball Select team that practiced against the USA Men's senior National Team in the Summer of 2010. The concern with Kemba is his overall field goal percentage for his career at U-Conn. He shot just .428. And his three-point shooting could only be called "acceptable" at .330 this season. His 1.78:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is also just "okay" for a Point Guard. ...Despite any concern, I like Kemba Walker. He is a winner.

I see some Yogi Stewart in Tristan Thompson's game. 

Tristan Thompson is a player I am having a hard time trying to visualize in five years. Is he a special BIG or is he such a bad shooter that he will never develop? The Canadian that balled at Texas this season is a mobile lefty BIG that has a real ability to maintain his focus and follow through when converting shots around the hoop. ...Great length. His standing reach is over nine feet! He will dunk anything close to the rim. He's a good offensive rebounder that will dunk in traffic. ...He understands how to seal his man and get good position in the low post but his post moves are a work in progress. ...He can finish in transition. He was named to the Big 12 All-Defensive Team as a freshman. …The issue with Thompson's game right now is his horrid fee throw shooting. He also has more turnovers than assists. ...McDonald's High School All-American that transferred away from St Benedict's where he was said to have clashed with Dan Hurley. He wound up at Findley Prep and led that team to the high school "national championship". ...The upside here is tremendous.

I soured on LaceDarius Dunn this season but does that mean he should be totally disregarded?

Dunn is too good a scorer to be dismissed.

LaceDarius Dunn is a shooting Guard that finished his career at Baylor as the all-time leading scorer in Big 12 history! He really came alive in the N.I.T. Tournament at the close of the 2008-09 season. He is a scorer that does have a questionable shot selection but he also makes things happen with his aggressiveness. This season he averaged 19 points, four rebounds and two assists per game. In a "down" year for Dunn as a Senior his percentages were still better than most SG prospects. He shot .398 from beyond the arc, and .826 at the line. ...He is good at splitting a double team with his dribble. He is an  excellent shooter. Right handed. ...He has good speed. ...He will get a technical foul now and again. ...A red flag on Dunn's resume was that he was suspended for the first three games of 2010-11 due to an arrest for aggravated assault stemming from a domestic incident. ...Dunn reacts quickly and sometimes gets by on his athleticism as opposed to moving without the ball. ... I also think he could be more alert as a defender. ...Overall though - I like Dunn as a big shot taker and maker - and in the current landscape of NBA SG's where Tony Allen and J.R. Smith rank among the top-ten in efficiency - I don't think you can overlook Dunn. ...In high school: Led Excelsior Christian School (Monroe, La.) to 118-9 record and one state championship over final three prep seasons.

Justin Hurtt will be among those working out in Sacramento Monday. The Tulsa Senior is a lefty, high-riser that became a better shooter as his career progressed. He shot between 36% and 39% from three-point range during his last three seasons. He is a 80% free throw shooter. However - Hurtt is another guard that has more turnovers than assists (career), and shoots a low field goal percentage (42%). …He is a good athlete; he won a Kansas City All-Star slam dunk contest after his high school Senior season.  ...Check out this video to get a better idea about Hurtt's hops.

Dogus Balbay from Turkey earned some love in several articles about day one of the Adidas EuroCamp. He played at Texas for three seasons and convinced us he is a real point guard that defends well, and finds the open-man with consistency. In each of his three seasons as a Longhorn he had a better than two-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio. His problem is that he just isn't much of a scoring threat at all. He ever averaged more than four points per game a Texas. That said, there is no doubt that Balbay can run a team, and provide leadership by example. He doesn't take plays off. ...But the NBA is the NBA and a Point Guard needs to be able to light up the scoreboard more than four points per game.

Is Jimmy the real deal? We say - YES!

Butler will be a PR staff's dream

Jimmy Butler from Marquette is a player that I really enjoyed watching. His coach (Buzz Williams) called him the hardest working kid he's ever coached. Butler is a late bloomer that improved by leaps and bounds since starting his collegiate career at a Junior College. …He rarely takes a bad shot - which is reflected in his career 51% FG shooting. ...He is smart - with a 1.63:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. ...He is a good athlete with hang-time in his jumping ability (measured 39" max. vert. at Chicago combine.) ...Butler averaged 15 points and six rebounds per game in 2010-11. His three-point shooting ability is a key part of his evolving game. He doesn't shoot a high volume of threes but he makes 39% of them (career). ...There are no red-flags with Butler. I think he is among the safest picks in the draft. I have him ranked higher than any other draft site I've seen.

Xavier Silas will have worked out for ten NBA teams by the time the NBA Draft rolls around on June 23rd. ...He played his freshman season at Colorado before transferring to Northern Illinois. As a Senior he averaged 22 points per game. He is a 6'5" Shooting Guard that improved his outside shooting to the point where he hit the three-ball at 41% in 2010-11. …80% FT (career). …Unfortunately - he has way more turnovers than assists - so he is NOT a Point Guard prospect. He CAN guard PG's but offensively he needs to improve dramatically as a distributor. ...Right-handed. ...He is in great physical condition. ...Confident. ...Silas is the son of James Silas who played six seasons in the NBA.

Outside the top 60, a couple intriguing prospects

Today we look at a half-dozen players that needed to be reevaluated...

Gilbert Brown is a great athlete that made strides as a shooter during his five-year career at Pittsburgh. …In 2007-08 he shot just 24% from 3-pt range but by the end of his Senior season (2010-11) he was up to a very good 42% from beyond the college arc. ...He also improved his assist-to-turnover ratio to a very respectable 1.51:1. ...He is an excellent offensive rebounder for his position and he also can defend. ...He is clearly improving and is also putting in the time to improve. He has been working out in Las Vegas at Impact Basketball Academy in preparation for the draft.

Leon Radosevic is a solid basketball player that seems to have an understanding of how to play the game. However - he lacks the athleticism and dynamic ability that most NBA players possess. He rarely takes a bad shot and that is a strength in his game. He shoots 54% FG. ...He struggles at the line at 67%. ...He does not shoot the long-ball at all. Radosevic recently signed a contract extension with Cibona through 2014.

Willie Reed played two seasons at St. Louis but sat out the 2010-11 campaign after being dismissed from the university following a sex scandal. He is a 6'9" shot blocker that struggles with any perimeter shooting. His free throw percentage for two years as a Billiken was a putrid 50 percent. He led the Atlantic 10 in field goal percentage as a sophomore (.587). ...In high school - as a junior - Reed was ranked 32nd among forwards in the nation by the scouting service Scout.com.

Xavi Rabaseda can be seen on YouTube doing Rex Chapman-like reverse dunks but is his overall game ready for the NBA? Rabaseda is a good enough athlete but his skill level just is not there yet. He might be a guy worth drafting just to retain his rights because his ceiling is higher than most in Europe due to the bounce in his step. Rabaseda's low efficiency this season (.324 EFR) just does not translate to success at the NBA level. He shoots just 43% FG, and 69% FT. He has more turnovers than assists. …Right handed. ...He does demonstrate the ability as an athlete to compete in the league but so does Terrell Owens. Video of Rabaseda below:

Another under-the-radar player garnering looks from NBA teams is Chaisson Allen of Northeastern. Allen has size at 6'4" for a point guard but his overall efficiency is not high enough to warrant NBA consideration. He is not able to sufficiently create his own shot or get consistent penetration into the paint. He does shoot the three-ball well (38% as a Senior), and he does defend well too.

Joffrey Lauvergne worked out today for the Boston Celtics. The French product is a right handed PF that pursues the ball well. He shows promise for a 19 year-old kid but he lacks the hyper-athleticism needed to compete favorably against NBA BIGS. …I like his all-business demeanor on the floor and he has good timing and rebounding instincts. This season he is shooting only 64% from the line and he has more turnovers than assists.

Is Knight worthy of top-five talk? Plus Macvan, Djedovic reviews.

Will Milan Macvan be athletic enough
in 2015 to be in the NBA?

Milan Macvan was the MVP of the 2009 Hoop Summit. Ever since then I've wondered if he would ever sniff the NBA. Macvan is built like a Mack Truck. He is a powerful Forward with a shooting touch (over 80% from the line). In his impressive showing at the `09 Hoop Summit - he put up 23 points, grabbed 14 rebounded and handed out six assists. ...He has good hoop instincts. …He now plays for Maccabi Tel Aviv where he is under contract through 2014-15.  He has the skill but his athleticism is lacking and now he is in the the first six months of a five year contract with Maccabi Tel Aviv. He is 21 years old now and any team thinking of selecting him should really consider whether or not you think he can still be reasonably athletic by the time he is 26.

Madman, ala Olberding, gets
nasty on dunk!

Mark Madsen comes to mind. The Mad Man actually had some terrific 'above the rim' moments, especially on the offensive glass, at Stanford. But barely two years later - Madsen looked every bit like the guy who aged too fast and could no longer finish inside.

...Peeked into Nihad Djedovic's game today and here is what I learned. With a solid frame, a quick release on his shot, and a low center of gravity with solid ball-handling skills - Nihad Djedovic is a European Shooting Guard worth being aware of. …He is right handed with an unorthodox jump shot (released low and in front of his eyes, but also done every quickly). ...Crafty. He plays the game with high energy and is very aggressive. This leads to a turnover problem (this season 58 assists, 83 turnovers) - which you never like to see from a Guard. ...Djedovic is worth a look though for sure. Check out this highlight package to get a feel for how he plays:

In closing - some food for thought. Brandon Knight was in Sacramento yesterday to work out. It is widely believed he will be gone by the time the Kings select at number seven in June 23rd's NBA Draft. I really have to question why Knight is being talked about as a lottery pick. Of course, with me, the issue for Knight is overall efficiency as it relates to others in this draft and those players already in the NBA. Knight simply did not demonstrate in his freshman season at Kentucky or at the 2010 Nike Hoop Summit that he was dynamic enough to be so highly thought of.

Remember how most thought Jonny Flynn couldn't miss? How about Randy Foye, or Acie Law? All of those guys were selected inside the first eleven.

Is Knight dynamic enough to thrive in the
talent rich pool of NBA Point Guards?

Brandon Knight had some nice games down the stretch for Kentucky. He is smart, and he should get better. I get all that. But why is Knight really the only guy in the Draft right now where the science (or math or whatever you choose to call it) doesn't come close to justifying him being so highly ranked? He shot 42% FG in the SEC, and his assist-to-turnover numbers were okay only if he plays the TWO. As a Point Guard, Knight will really have to improve upon a 1.325 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He will also need to distribute more and not jack so many shots. He put up the rock over 500 times last season as a Wildcat. The Kings have plenty of shot-jacking at Guard already in Tyreke Evans, and Marcus Thornton. ...I'm not saying Knight can't be a good NBA player. I AM saying the landscape at Point Guard right now in the NBA is very tough, and Knight's historical numbers should be a lot better if he is to be talked about as a top-five pick.

On top of Knight being a bad value relative to his historical data - there is no shortage of Point Guards in this draft that may prove to be better if not just as good as Knight. Chris Wright of Georgetown (who may not even be drafted) is only two one thousandths of a percentage point lower in efficiency than Knight. Ben Hansbrough, Antoine Diot, Charles Jenkins, Reggie Jackson, Kemba Walker, and even BYU's Jackson Emery posted higher efficiency ratings than Knight did. Iman Shumpert - while not as efficient as Knight - has a bigger upside.

Again - this is just food for thought.

Prospecting - Can you dig it?

In honor of Shaquille O'Neal's retirement - we ask "Can you dig it?" That's what you have to do. DIG! If you want to really know about players that will be selected in the June 23rd NBA Draft, you have to spend the time, scour the loads of information available, watch as much video as possible, and look back on your notes from actually WATCHING full games. 

Shaq as Kazaam

I laughed out loud at a tweet on Draft Express where at the NBA Combine - an NBA Exec said, ""If you were watching Enes Kanter or Nikola Vucevic for the 1st time yesterday, close your eyes and pick one of them from 10-20." From DraftExpress.comhttp://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Enes-Kanter-5168/#ixzz1O9V6V5LE
http://www.draftexpress.com
That immediately tells me - the NBA exec didn't really watch Vucevic play at USC. Vucevic is not in the same efficiency zip code as Kanter. Vucevic is a BIG that likes to drift on the perimeter - even though his massive frame says he should be posting up low. For lack of a better term - I always came away thinking Vucevic was "soft". ...One thing in Vucevic's defense that has to be considered is that he never played with an efficient Point Guard as a Trojan. Had he been playing with someone that looked for him more - he would have been more efficient. ...That said, I still think Kanter is BY FAR the better prospect.

Enes Kanter is a BIG 19 year-old that can run. He is powerful and fluid. This we know for sure. He dominated as a member of the International team at the 2010 Nike Hoop Summit. Kanter blistered Team USA (and Jared Sullinger - now at Ohio St.) - with 34 points in just 24 minutes. He added 13 boards, and made eight of his nine free throw attempts. Unfortunately - that is the last game he played in - as he was ineligible at Kentucky for the 2010-11 season. However - if you dig a little you can find stats for Kanter's play in Turkey before the Hoop Summit. Those numbers reveal that he was just as dominant. I have him with over 900 minutes of action - posting an efficiency rating of .915. That is through the roof GREAT!  Can that efficiency translate to the NBA? If it does - you are talking about having an Al Horford type talent at Power Forward or Center. ...Kanter is VERY good around the hoop. His large frame allows him to get great position in the low-post - and he can use either hand. He is naturally right handed. His face-up game is advanced. His footwork is excellent for a 19 year-old. ...By all accounts, Kanter is a good kid and a hard worker with no red flags. Both of his parents are doctors. ...Please take the time (an ad will run before the video) to watch this footage of a recent Kanter workout: 

Mirotic City - Talent among European players is strong.

In a draft that I feel is deep with future NBA players - albeit not rich in future All-Stars, I see value in two of the European players in particular. Perhaps it is simply because the commercial mock-draft sites are USA based - but it appears that most mocks are maligning European prospects when in fact many of these dudes can really play.

Let's start with Nikola Mirotic. He is a 6'10" Small Forward that at age 20 is playing for Real Madrid. He is under contract with the Spanish powerhouse until 2016. Because of his contract situation - I wouldn't swing for him in the first round - but if I were a GM with a contract of my own through 2016 - I would certainly gamble on him in the second round just to retain his rights. Mirotic has length (7'1" wingspan - Draft Express), and he can score and rebound at a high rate. He shoots the ball well (.505 FG%, .865 FT), and he moves with a fluidity that translates to the NBA game. Check out this video to see what I mean:


Next up is another Small Forward prospect from Germany by the name of Robin Benzing. This 22 year-old can really stretch the defense with his three point shooting ability. …He is a scorer. …Right handed. He is aggressive when it comes to putting the ball in the hoop. I like that. I also like that he gets to the free throw line at a high rate for a Small Forward. ...Benzing takes charges, and he competes. In my opinion, he is being underrated by nearly every mock draft board I've seen. ...His shortcomings include his passing and playmaking for teammates. Benzing has more turnovers than assists for all the stats I can dig up for him.

I am a fan of Adam Hanga from Hungary. He is a 6'7" Shooting Guard  that is athletic enough to blend in with the best athletes in the world that populate NBA floors. Hanga he has a nice combo of ball-handling and passing skill to go with solid size for his position. This season he dished 132 assists while only turning it over 72 times. 

I am not high on Pablo Aguilar, Chu Chu Maduabum or Pere Tomas. I'm lukewarm on Andrew Albicy - a French Point Guard that can lead a team with his heart, hustle, and passing skill. On the flip-side though - he is small (although solidly built), and his shot is inconsistent.

I'm warming to 6'11" forward Jan Vesely but I am still convinced he is being grossly overrated by everyone. His athleticism is legitimate but his efficiency just does not equate to greatness - especially if he turns out to be more of a FOUR than a THREE. His hands are questionable. He is only a 47% free throw shooter.


Tomislav Zubcic is an athletic 6'10" kid that can shoot, and handle the ball (he ran the point for portions of the 2009 Hoop Summit). He - like Vesely is much more valuable if he can play Small Forward but I believe he would struggle to guard most NBA Small Forwards - so he will be a "stretch four". He likes the perimeter game and is unselfish with good vision. ...He is under contract in Europe through 2014.

Lottery leads to all things NBA Draft

The NBA Draft Lottery offered clarity in the order of selections for the June 23rd NBA Draft. The Lottery is a bit like when Santa Claus appears in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. It symbolizes the start of the "Draft season". ...The Pre Draft combine starts tomorrow in Chicago and we will begin to get into the nitty gritty of measurements, and testing results. But as previously stated - nothing beats actually having watched full games in their proper context.

Most of my feelings on 2011 Draft prospects are set. Certainly I will continue to filter all of the information I can stomach but it seems funny to me that so much attention is placed on the combine where the players NEVER actually play ANY games or team basketball.

How would Dirk Nowitzki fare in the weight lifting and running and jumping tests were he to be subjected to them? Remember when Kevin Durant couldn’t lift the bench bar once? The information gleaned at the combine IS a piece to the puzzle but it should be a nano-particle size piece.

…Here are some players I believe could have easily been invited to Chicago but somehow were shut out:
 

Mario Little - Kansas - This one really stumps me overall. I search for any news regarding Little and the NBA and I come up empty. Didn't anyone watch Kansas games this year. Little outplayed Josh Selby by miles.


Justin Brownlee - St. John's - NBA body - and he can make mid-range shots. He moves the ball - and sees the floor very well - often winding up with assists - passing from the hi-post. …Has a dependable turn around, fade away jump shot that is hard to guard. ...He rebounds outside his area. Quick enough that he will take almost any opposing PF off the dribble. ...Powerful enough to take contact and still hit a shot.

The Sweet 16. From an NBA perspective

Irving is the ONE to watch.

Kyrie Irving - Duke 6'2" 172 Point Guard - Freshman ...A possible first pick in the NBA Draft. He is a pure point guard that passes ahead, finds the open-man, and does so at NBA speed. He is a smart right-handed guard that may not wow you with the type of athleticism that Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose possess - but nevertheless - Irving gets the job done (think more like Chris Paul style). Irving has good first-step quickness - which gives him the ability to get into the paint. He only played in eight games this season to date but in those eight contests - he was at times dominant. His .702 EFR translates to ELITE Point Guard status at the next level. The question is whether or not - the small sample size of efficiency could have been maintained through ACC play - had he been healthy. ...Irving is a former McDonald's All-American.  


Kawhi Leonard - San Diego State 6'7" 225 Sophomore. ...I am sold on Kawhi Leonard! He has a unique skill set that is highlighted by a scorer's instinct, ball-handling ability and rebounding prowess. Really - he is just a basketball player. Leonard has big hands and a nose for the ball. He is a SPECIAL talent where rebounding is concerned. There are very few players who have what I call "suction cups" (for hands). Leonard is one of the few. His ability to grab balls sticks out like animation in reality. Imagine a player with guard-like dribbling ability that can get you nearly eleven boards per game and you begin to understand the rare value in Kawhi Leonard. He also finishes in transition, and powers through opponents with an advanced dribble-drive game. ...He has more assists than turnovers. Leonard's weakness to date is his three-point shooting (.240 career). ...If you wonder why San Diego State has been unusually good this season, Kawhi Leonard is the biggest factor.

Marcus Morris - Kansas 6'8" 225 Junior. ...Morris is one half of the "Kansas Twins". He and brother Markieff are hard working kids that bring skill and toughness to a team. Marcus was recently named the Big 12 Player of the Year. He is great in transition and can finish plays at the rim. In half-court sets - he is patient and smart. He can step out and hit a three point shot. He takes charges. He is alert. His combination of strength and quickness in face up situations vs. power players is very nice. …While not the playmaker that Rodney McCray was - Morris nevertheless reminds me of McCray with his ability to handle the ball or post up. Both are the kind of player that holds a team together with their ability and no nonsense approach. Morris is an excellent rebounder and he shoots 56% FG (career!). Led the Prep Charter High School Eagles to back-to-back Pennsylvania state titles in 2007 and 2006. In `07 he hit the game winning shot in the state championship game. 


DeShaun Thomas - Ohio St. 6'7" 221 Freshman - Thomas only plays an average of 14 minutes per game off the bench as a Buckeye freshman but his efficiency and past accomplishments lead us to believe he may be the best Shooting Guard (or Small Forward) prospect in this tournament when we look back at it in five years. ...Thomas was Mr. Basketball 2010 in Indiana where he was a McDonald's All-American. He is an NBA athlete that can score and rebound at a high rate. ...Thomas won two Indiana state high school championships (2008 & 2009). 

Jimmer Freddette - BYU 6'2" 195 Senior. - Jimmer Fredette is a phenomenal scorer. He is a combo-guard that leads the nation at 28.5 points per game. He can create his own scoring opportunities off the dribble. Right handed. ...He is a tremendously accurate shooter (40% from three and .90% FT). Freddette is coming off a Mountain West Tournament where he had a 52 point game vs. New Mexico. In that game - he hit seven triples.  ...Good ball handler. ...He has long arms. ...Fredette has the ability to control his pace. …Not just a three point shooter. …Good with the ball in his hands - and capable of making plays at full speed. He has ability to make crazy, circus shots. ...He will jack some quick attempts but you live with it because he can light up the scoreboard like few ever have. Freddette is so popular - he is featured on CNN's website. 


Jared Sullinger - Ohio St. 6'8" 262 Freshman - Sullinger has been an impact freshman for the #1 ranked Buckeyes. He is a big, wide bodied low post scorer that entered college prepared to be a BIG man. He is remarkably fundamentally sound for his age. This season his averages are 17 points (53% FG) and ten boards. ...While there is considerable hype around Sullinger - one must keep in mind - this is a down year overall for talent. The truth is - Sullinger's game is below the rim and he turns it over more than he assists. His free throw percentage is 70%.

Thomas Robinson - Kansas 6'9" 237 Sophomore - Robinson is a hyper-athletic front court playmaker that has the athleticism necessary to compete on the NBA hardwood. He is a fantastic offensive rebounder and energy guy. His efficiency in limited minutes translates well to the NBA. On the downside, most of Robinson's success comes from his athleticism and power rather than from skill. He is a poor free throw shooter at 50%, and he also has more than two turnovers for every assist. ...Sadly, Robinson's mother died January 22nd. Read an excellent feature here.

John Henson - North Carolina 6'10" 210 Sophomore - Henson is a super long shot blocker and offensive rebounding force that struggles with his shooting. He is rail thin but he changes opponent's shots with his long reach, and quick reactions. He has 113 blocked shots this season in 934 minutes! His field goal percentage is .503 - which is more of a reflection of the number of dunks and tip-ins he gets due to his length than due to his shooting skill (or lack thereof). …He is at .454 for his career at the free throw line which is horrible. ...The biggest question with Henson I see going forward is will his thin frame be able to withstand the rigors of the NBA? He looks too thin. I am already sold on his ability to impact games in the paint with his combo of reach and bounce. 

Tyler Zeller - North Carolina 7'0" 245 Junior - Zeller can run and finish well for a seven footer. He hustles. …Owns a quick release on his shot and he has touch. He uses both hands well in the low post. He is more effective with hook shots going over the top of the defense than he is trying to go at someone. ...He competes. He takes charges. ...Hits offensive glass and will score on tip-ins. ...He needs to be a better passer out of the low post. His assist-to-turnover ratio is horrid (4 to's for every 1 assist. ugh.) ...He needs to get stronger - especially in his lower body - as he will have difficulty holding his ground to get his low post game off at the next level. 

Derrick Williams - Arizona 6'8" 241 Sophomore - Williams is a strong one-on-one player that can score and get to the free throw line with regularity. …He hit the game winner with a quick-reaction move while falling down to send Arizona to the Sweet 16. He is too quick to be guarded by Power Forwards yet too powerful to be guarded by small forwards. …He doesn't pass the ball much. …Mostly a determined, confident scorer. He has an uncanny ability to make three point shots. He is shooting 60% from THREE POINT RANGE! ...He has a quick second jump. 

Jimmy Butler - Marquette - 6'7" 220 Senior. ...His coach (Buzz Williams) calls him the hardest working kid he's ever coached. …Jimmy Butler is a late bloomer that has improved by leaps and bounds since starting his collegiate career at a Junior College. …He rarely takes a bad shot - which is reflected in his career 51% FG shooting. ...He is smart - with a 1.6-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio (career). ...He is a good athlete with hang-time in his jumping ability. ...This season Butler averages 16 points and six rebounds per game. His three-point shooting ability is a key part of his evolving game. He doesn't shoot a high volume of threes but he makes a great percentage (.409) of the long ball shots he throws up.

Jeremy Lamb - Connecticut 6'5" 185 Freshman - Lamb is an athletic guard with ball-handling skills. He averages ten points, and four rebounds per game as a sidekick to Kemba Walker. Lamb stands out for his leaping ability and speed. He looks like a track athlete. He has a feel for the game - evidenced by his solid 1.19-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. His deep shooting is respectable at .351 from beyond arc. He hits 80% of his free throws. It will interesting to see how Lamb blossoms once Walker moves on to the NBA, and Lamb becomes a bigger part of the offense. 

Markieff Morris - Kansas 6'10" 245 Junior. ...Markieff is the less ballyhooed of the "Kansas Twins" but he is a formidable player himself. He scores 13.6 ppg, and grabs 8.2 rebounds each outing. Morris is shooting 60% from the field this season and also has the skill to stretch the defense with spot-up three point shooting (40%). He could be a better free throw shooter and he has more turnovers than assists but Morris is nevertheless as solid as they come. 

Kyle Singler - Duke 6'8" 230 Senior. ...Singler is a scrappy Small Forward that never ceases to amaze with his smarts, boundless energy, and relentless hustle. He shoots the three, he rebounds, he's a good free throw shooter. ...Singler seems to be mentally a step ahead of other players. He reads offensive situations and then makes the proper cut at the precise time to help his team. He is unselfish. …Limited in taking players off the dribble but he does uses crafty shot fakes and hesitations to get free. …Focused. ...High hoops I.Q. …Singler is Duke's most well rounded player. He was the 2010 ACC Tournament MVP.

Kemba Walker - Connecticut 6'1" 172 Junior - No player has received more television coverage this season than Kemba Walker. An ESPN darling, Walker is a strong Point Guard with great ball handling ability, combined with good speed. He repeatedly has nailed clutch shots for the Huskies this season - and he seems to shine when the lights are at their brightest. …Not afraid to go to the hole. …He competes. …Stays in plays defensively. …Crafty. Good in transition. …Can make a play one on one in crunch time. ...He has a nice stroke that is consistent and reliable. ...Quick hands. ...Alert. He will be among the steals leaders wherever he plays. ...He uses his off hand well (left). …Willing to accept a challenge. He reminds me of Ben Gordon but Walker is a little more of a PG than Gordon ever was. Walker has better vision than Gordon. ...Walker played for the Team USA Select team that practiced against the USA Men's senior National Team in the Summer of 2010. ...From the Bronx, NY. ...For his career his field goal percentage is just .430 - which helps to explain why U-Conn struggles to win with consistency. Defensively - I would like to see Walker have more active hands in on-ball situations.

Harrison Barnes - North Carolina 6'8" 210 Freshman. ...Barnes has NBA scouts mostly drooling over his scoring ability in an athletic package. He has come on strong down the stretch of his freshman season highlighted by a 40-point outburst vs. Clemson in the ACC Tournament. He has been hitting big buckets for the Heels. ...What concerns me still is that Barnes has mostly done his damage from the perimeter - showing a reluctance to get to the free throw line consistently. He also has more turnovers than assists. ...He is an excellent transition player that can finish above the rim. ...Right handed with ability to drive and score or hit a perimeter jump shot. A former McDonald's All-American.

Players to watch in the NCAA Tournament. ...The Centers

Keith Benson - Oakland 6'11" 230 Senior - Benson plays in the Summit League which is far from a major conference but his career efficiency rating of .713 is too good to be ignored. Benson is lanky and right handed. …He was again named the Summit Player of the Year - just as he was in 2009-10. Benson was also the Defensive Player of the Year this season. ...Really skilled as a shot blocker, and a solid protector of the rim. He was second in the NCAA this season in blocked shots per game at 3.8. …He has quick hands and a good bounce in his jumping ability. He understands his role and plays near the rim. ...Good on the offensive glass. ...He moves his feet well and has enough quickness to be an NBA Center. ...He is a career 68% free throw shooter. 


John Henson - North Carolina 6'10" 210 Sophomore - Henson is a super long shot blocker and offensive rebounding force that struggles with his shooting. He is rail thin but he changes opponent's shots with his long reach, and quick reactions. He has 103 blocked shots this season in less than 900 minutes! His field goal percentage is .503 - which is more of a reflection of the number of dunks and tip-ins he gets due to his length than due to his shooting skill (or lack thereof). …He is at .454 for his career at the free throw line which is horrible. ...The biggest question with Henson I see going forward is will his thin frame be able to withstand the rigors of the NBA? He looks too thin. I am already sold on his ability to impact games in the paint with his combo of reach and bounce. 


Josh Smith - UCLA 6'10" 305 Freshman - Smith is a problem in the low post. He has good hands and nimble feet. …He is out of shape and overweight but he can impact a game by scoring in the low post and rebounding. ...Needs to do a better a job of staying out of foul trouble and he really needs to improve as a passer. He has more than two turnovers for every assist. ...Just a 62% free throw shooter. ...McDonald's All-American. His Kentwood High team won the 2010 Washington State Championship during his Senior season. 

Tyler Zeller - North Carolina 7'0" 245 Junior - Zeller can run and finish well for a seven footer. He hustles. …Owns a quick release on his shot and he has touch. He uses both hands well in the low post. He is more effective with hook shots going over the top of the defense than he is trying to go at someone. ...He competes. He takes charges. ...Hits offensive glass and will score on tip-ins. ...He needs to be a better passer out of the low post. His assist-to-turnover ratio is horrid (4 to's for every 1 assist. ugh.) ...He needs to get stronger - especially in his lower body - as he will have difficulty holding his ground to get his low post game off at the next level. 


JaJuan Johnson - Purdue 6'10" 221 Senior - (Johnson should probably be listed as a Power Forward but there is such a lack of Center candidates... I threw him in this pool.) JaJuan Johnson became a dependable scorer in face up situations as he matured at Purdue. Now - he has an advanced face-up game for a big man with length. He averaged 20.5 points per game this season. ...He is a quick jumper. ...Has a skinny frame that needs to beef up. …He has a fairly consistent jump hook. He finishes around the rim. …Defensively - he has quick reactions - and he is a good shot blocker. ...Right handed. ...Makes his free throws at 81%. ...His length allows him to make plays others simply cannot make. …Hits the offensive glass. …Gathers himself under control. 

Bernard James has an NBA body.

Bernard James - Florida St. 6'10" 240 Junior - James is a former Air Force soldier that at age 26 has made an impact defensively for Florida State. He is a strong presence inside as a shot blocker with an NBA body. ...He doesn't take many bad shots - and as a result - he is shooting 65% from the field. ...James completed a six-year term in the US Air Force (2003-08) and was stationed in Iraq and Qatar in the Middle East during his deployment. 


Josh Harrellson - Kentucky 6'10" 275 Senior - Harrellson has positively impacted Kentucky's team with his willingness and ability to run the floor. He gets seven points and nine boards per game while shooting a nice 58% FG. ...He takes good care of the ball and blocks his share of shots by being an alert help defender. 


Nikola Vucevic - USC 6'10" 260 Junior  - Vucevic has lots of potential due to a high skill level. He is a right handed BIG that grew up around basketball - with both of parents being professional players in Europe. He can score on the low block with his back to the basket. He has a variety of moves. His face-up game is also nice - stretching all the way to the three point line. He has shown the skill to make passes out of a double team but at the end of the day - he has significacntly more turnovers than assists for his USC career. Vucevic is not as efficiecnt as he could be due to a habit of drifting on the periemeter as opposed to using his big frame down low. 


Adreian Payne - Michigan State 6'10" 225 Freshman - Payne only plays nine minutes per game but he has shot blocking ability that shows up "on the radar". He might be worth watching as he develops. 


Others: Mouphtaou Yarou - Villanova. Yancy Gates - Cincinnati. Gary McGhee - Pittsburgh. Matthew Bryan-Amaning - Washington. Robert Sacre - Gonzaga. Aziz N'Diaye - Washington. Festus Ezeli - Vanderbilt.


See our Power Forwards list...
See our Small Forwards list...
See our Shooting Guards list...
See our Point Guards list...