All-NBA 2014-15

All-NBA status = stardom

In our opinion, All-NBA teams should recognize the player's total production, defense, and the individual's team success. This year, we tried to use a formula that ranked each of those three categories. "Total production" seems the most important to me. Some players missed chunks of games due to injury, and that should be accounted for when trying to decide who is worthy of being an All-NBA performer any given year. 

We went to great lengths to decide our first through third team selections. We started with 57 players trying to get down to the top 15. After a first look, 13 guys were eliminated as candidates, leaving us with 44 players vying for 15 spots. 

We valued total production (our efficiency rating, multiplied by number of minutes played) as 60% of our formula. The best measure for defense is the Defensive Rating stat. But because Defensive Rating is greatly influenced by a player's teammates, it was weighted at just 20%. The remaining 20% weight went to the number of wins a player's team has. 

The results were eye-opening. Some of the players you would expect to be at or near the top were not there. Others who were overlooked as recently as the NBA All-Star Game, we realized, could make a strong case for All-NBA status. 

Ultimately we used the data to help inform us. But the final decision was not just about the results of the formula. As always, we believe you have to consider the data but also consider your own common sense, and feel for who has impacted the NBA and their team enough to deserve All-NBA honors. 

Please understand that these 15 players who we ultimately decided to go with are not necessarily the 15 players we would want if we were building a team. This is not about "upside" or the future. These first through third team All-NBA selections are instead SOLELY related to this 2014-15 season and who we think impacted the league at each position with their overall play. 

Curry should be MVP

All-NBA First Team: Stephen Curry, James Harden, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol. 

The picks of Curry and Harden are no-brainers. Lebron as the small-forward is also pretty easy. While I would like to see Anthony Davis have a bigger impact on defense, I also think it is fairly simple to name him as the First-Team power-forward. The shocker in our formula was that DeAndre Jordan, Pau Gasol and Marc Gasol came out in a near dead-heat in the battle for First-Team Center. Presently, the Clippers and Grizzlies both have the same number of wins (54), while the Bulls trail with 48 wins. Jordan has yet to miss a game. He leads the NBA in both rebounding (14.8 per game!) and field goal percentage (70%!). But Marc Gasol has the better Defensive Rating among the trio, and that was the tie-breaker for me. 

All-NBA Second Team: Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook,  Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol, DeAndre Jordan.  

The Second Team backcourt of Paul and Westbrook seemed easy to decipher. Westbrook missed 15 games for OKC which is why he fell to Second-Team status. The next three positions really have no correct answer. The NBA landscape at small-forward went through some undulations in the 2014-15 season. Usually, Kevin Durant is a shoe-in for All-NBA but he was injured. Ditto Paul George. Carmelo Anthony's team was pitiful. ...After considering Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson (a shooting guard), and Draymond Green, we decided on Kawhi. Leonard is the next best small forward choice even though he missed 18 games this season. Leonard's "two-way" ability, and the Spurs success, is enough for him to edge out the rest in our opinion. The two BIGs on the Second Team are Pau Gasol, and Jordan. 

All-NBA Third-Team: John Wall, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan.

The Third-Team shocker is Draymond Green. Again, we doubt he will earn many votes but it says here that he should. Green has been one of, if not the best, defender in the NBA this season (we chose him as the NBA Defensive Player of the Year). His team has 65 wins and although he did spend most of his minutes playing power forward for the Warriors, he often operates in a small-forward-like capacity (he shoots .338 from deep, and has a better than two-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio). ...Tim Duncan is often overlooked. Some say he plays limited minutes too often. Well consider this... Duncan is approaching 2200 minutes (2193 mins.) this season and that is more minutes played than DeMarcus Cousins (2013 minutes played). Duncan is one of eight players in our study of 44 that has a Defensive Rating under 100 (the lower the number, the better). He is also one of eight in our study of 44 guys that has an "EFR" of over .700 (the higher, the better). 

Who was close that deserves careful consideration for All-NBA? Among BIGs it is Al Horford, Cousins, Paul Millsap, Blake Griffin, and Zach Randolph. Perimeter players who nearly made it included Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving (his poor defensive rating turned me off big time), Eric Bledsoe, and Jeff Teague. 

Point LeBron? It may be his best position.

Lost in all the talk about where LeBron James may wind up is one other pertinent question. What position does he play?

I’m sure you are like, “Duh. Small Forward, dude.” 

Not so fast Spicoli. 

LeBron has spent the majority of his career as a SF but in a routine check of his birthdate on his NBA.com player profile I noticed something. King James’ three point percentage for his career is just .329 (the last two seasons he knocked in .344 and .333 of his deep shots). Why is that news or noteworthy? We have long believed over here that a crucial element to offensive balance in the NBA is having a THREE man (SF) that can stretch the defense with accurate three-point shooting. Our “rule” is that, among other criteria, an effective SF should shoot 33% from long range at minimum. LeBron is clearly right on that borderline—hitting the 33% exactly this last season, but being slightly below the cut off point for his career. 

We humbly suggest that perhaps LeBron would be more useful to the overall balance of a team if he were playing Point Guard. Why? The absence of James at SF would allow his team to plop a legit, NBA accurate, three-point shooter on the floor. Suddenly - whatever team James is on has a stretched floor that would allow him more room to operate off-the dribble, where he is most dangerous. Overall team size would increase - which would almost certainly lead to a higher rebounding percentage. 

Skeptical of LeBron as a Point Guard? Check the data. LeBron is so skilled that his assist-to-turnover ratio was 2.49 to 1. That is a higher and better ratio than what was posted in the regular season by Derrick Rose, Chauncey Billups, Ty Lawson, Earl Watson, and a slough of other players known as pure Point Guards.  Defensively -  James would overmatch 99.9% of his opponents. I believe even the quickest little PG’s would not bother LeBron that much. He is an elite athlete himself, and even he if was beaten—we all know that he recovers faster and more strongly than any defender in the NBA. 

Obviously - LeBron James playing ANY position on a basketball team would benefit a squad. But we are talking about the NBA, where history has proven that  “inches, fractions and angles matter”. Perhaps those “inches” are a significant factor in why the NBA’s most talented player is still looking for his first championship ring. 

I don’t see a downside to LeBron James being a Point Guard full time. Not only do I not see a downside. I actually think it may be the his best chance to win it all.

Notes from the NBA regular season stat audit

First off, here is a weird one: Dominic McGuire of the Kings/Wizards played over 300 minutes and never made a free throw. ...The Denver Nuggets only used 13 players all season.  

I want to throw some love in the direction of Martell Webster. (Pictured to left) The Blazers wing player played only five minutes of one game last season before suffering a season ending foot injury. This year—Webster joined teammate Andre Miller as the only Portland players to play in all 82 regular season games. I like to acknowledge guys with obvious toughness. And Martell Webster fits the toughness bill.

Who do you think had more field goals made this season for Utah: Andrei Kirilenko or rookie Wesley Matthews? That’s right - I would not have asked the question were it not Matthews. The Marquette product made 273 FG’s to AK’s 244.

The problem in Philadelphia was not Eddie Jordan. The problem is their roster. They have legit NBA starters in Lou Williams, Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert but they do not have a superstar. Heck—they barely have a star. Iguodala would be the closest thing to a star. They have solid rotation players in Elton Brand, and Thaddeus Young.

Over in Chicago - how about Brad Miller playing in all 82 games for the first time in his eleven year career? ...Guess which member of the Spurs played in all 82 this season. How about the guy with no ACL’s in either knee; DeJuan Blair.

Since in the past I have not exactly praised Jarrett Jack - I have to come clean and admit that I was wrong about him. He is a better player than I ever gave him credit for being. He plays hard and his shooting has improved to the point that he is now efficient.

Did you know that Ronnie Brewer (pictured below) who was traded by the Jazz to the Grizzlies - had the 19th best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA this season? Brewer played some Point Guard in college so maybe that is where Memphis should give him a look going forward. He doesn’t score enough to be an effective TWO and he doesn’t really shoot well enough to thrive as a THREE. (Hey—at least I’m thinking over here). Brewer at PG would be a more efficient option than Marcus Williams. I’m just saying.

You can count on one hand the guys in the NBA with the skill set and the body to effectively play Point Guard, Shooting Guard and Small Forward. You start with Lebron James, and follow with Joe Johnson. You might think Vince Carter would be a stretch at PG but he does own a healthy 2.23 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio.