Casspi out. Hickson in. Kings improve but still have questions.

"Crispy Crusty", as one caller called him,
brings energy and transition finishing skills. 

The Sacramento Kings were busy up to the NBA lockout deadline with a last day trade of Omri Casspi and a conditional first round pick to Cleveland for J.J. Hickson. I like the deal. I'm sorry to see Casspi go but I too would have pulled the trigger on this trade. Hickson is younger (22), more efficient, and higher ranked at his position than Casspi (23). But this is not to say that I think Casspi won't be a legit player in the NBA.

I believe with extended minutes - which he should get in Cavs-land, Casspi will become a more efficient player. To achieve that however - Casspi must become better at sharing the ball. He is passionate and energetic, and very self-confident. He moves well without the ball, and he reacts quickly, playing at NBA speed. On the other hand, Casspi needs to have more confidence in his teammates (and coaches).

In my opinion Casspi WAS justified in thinking he should be playing more while with the Kings. The inefficient Donte Greene ate into Casspi's minutes, particularly late in the season. Casspi only appeared in three April games - averaging not even five minutes per contest.

Hickson shows promise as a young BIG that, had he stayed in college, would have just completed his Senior season. Instead - he will have three years in the NBA under his belt whenever there is NBA action again. Hickson has excellent hands, a strong base, and enough athleticism to get rebounds outside his area. He can also score on the low-block; absorbing hits and powering though. Hickson has improved his assist-to-turnover ratio in each of three NBA seasons but, in my opinion, decision making is still his biggest weakness. His 67% free throw percentage could obviously improve as well.

Hickson is a Power Forward.

I've heard that Sacramento may play Hickson some at Center which I am not sold on. In my book - Hickson is strictly a classic Power Forward. He can block some shots but he is not an NBA caliber rim defender. He would be giving up too much size on a consistent basis playing the FIVE.  Honestly - Sac still needs to sign a defensive presence down low if Samuel Dalembert is not returning (and most guesses are that he is not). I don't think you can expect Hassan Whiteside to go from being a non-factor to suddenly being a rotation player.

In case you were wondering - by efficiency rating the Kings BIG's break down in this order based on their play in the 2010-11 regular season: DeMarcus Cousins .534, Hickson .529, Jason Thompson .478, Darnell Jackson .385 (yuck).

The John Salmons deal probably helps the Kings in one way. Defensively. Salmons actually is not even as efficient as Casspi or Francisco Garcia. But Salmons certainly moves his feet one-on-one more quickly than Garcia. I've often thought Garcia has been unfairly described as a poor defender. True - his initial foot movement is not top-tier. But Garcia recovers as well as any wing player. He has uncanny timing and an ability to 'dig back' and get his fingertips on many balls. Garcia has averaged 45 blocked shots per season (including 09-10 when he played just 25 games). Tyler Honeycutt, a Kings second round draft pick from UCLA, is as good or better than Garcia in the shot blocking area.

Greene is ONE with Kings fans. 

Back to Salmons, the unspoken benefit of his return could be if he takes whatever minutes Greene was getting. That is, if Greene continues to ignore his own obvious gifts of size versus the rest of the NBA Small Forward talent pool. Greene has to learn to take his game inside-out rather than outside-in. He had mismatches and size advantages throughout last season but rarely, if ever, hurt shorter defenders in the mid-post.

Despite Greene's ability to accept a defensive challenge - the truth is he wounded the Kings on many nights with poor shots. To be specific - Greene needs to turn down some of the three-point shots he jacks in favor of getting a closer look at the hoop. To do that - he will need to improve his ball-handling ability and come up with a few basic low post moves. This past season he had more turnovers than assists which is a now a career theme. We are three years into Donte Greene the NBA player and he is at 32% from three-point range. He seems to shoot it well enough from the corners but from straightaway he struggles.

While I am critical of Greene - he is also one of my favorite players in the NBA. He genuinely connects to the fans. His borderline O.C.D. pre-game routines are pure entertainment. He cheers for his teammates as much as any guy since M.L. Carr.  And I still believe when I look at Greene's mobility on a 6'11" frame - that he can raise his efficiency and become the player that so many envisioned he would be. He has the tools.

Sacramento's Small Forward efficiency looks like this: (based on the 2010-11 regular season): Garcia .390 (41st at SF in the NBA), Salmons .366 (41st at Shooting Guard), Greene .301 (67th at SF). ...Honeycutt is another possibility.

Evans is proof that playing Point Guard doesn't mean you

ARE a Point Guard. 

Some may say - why not run Tyreke Evans as a Small Forward? The answer is simple to me. He doesn't shoot the three-ball well enough to honestly stretch defenses. Evans is at 27% for his NBA career from beyond the arc. Even though Evans is listed at 6'6" - which is small for a SF, he has a standing reach of 8'8" which would put him solidly in the SF pool. (Garcia's standing reach is an inch shorter than Evans').

So Tyreke would be best served as a Shooting Guard. He can play Point Guard. He may not be the pass-first, all-sharing Point Guard that everyone wants but his 1.83 to 1 career assist-to-turnover ratio is not horrible either. It just isn't in the range of guys you would call "pure Point Guards". For example - if you don't know this stuff off the top of your head - here are the assist-to-turnover ratios for ten really good Point Guards on teams that win:

The assist-to-turnover king is CP3

• Chris Paul 4.42 to 1
• Rajon Rondo 3.25 to 1
• Kyle Lowry 3.16 to 1
• Andre Miller 2.87 to 1
• Raymond Felton 2.77 to 1
• Ty Lawson 2.75 to 1
• Tony Parker 2.57 to 1
• Chauncey Billups 2.42 to 1
• Derrick Rose 2.24 to 1
• Russell Westbrook 2.12 to 1

(Again Evans is at 1.83 to 1.)

The point of all this is that the Kings are headed into a season (whenever that is) with Evans, Marcus Thornton (also a TWO), and draft pick Jimmer Fredette as the guards that figure to play the most. Fredette's highest assist-to-turnover ratio ever at BYU was 1.71 to 1. Last season it was a very non Point Guard like 1.22 to 1. It is undeniable that Fredette has a great chance to raise his assist-to-turnover ratio playing with NBA caliber finishers. But it is also a bit of a gamble to think you can win in the NBA with a three-guard rotation of all TWO guards. 

A couple of players that don't figure to get major minutes are Pooh Jeter and Isaiah Thomas. Jeter boasts "real Point Guard" numbers at 3.18 to 1. Isaiah Thomas had his best season in three years at Washington in 2010-11 with a 2.05 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. 

Late Monday thoughts. Tyreke accomplishes 20, 5 & 5.

Just back from ARCO Arena where we saw Tyreke Evans score 24 points to ensure that he will have rookie season averages of 20 points, five assists, and five rebounds. The other cats that have done that are Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and Lebron James.

This would be a good time to remind anyone not paying us (which is everyone) that we had Tyreke listed only behind Blake Griffin on last year's draft board. The guy listed third on my board earned me snickers from veteran posters on some of the big-name draft site forums. I was arguing with anyone who would listen - that Steph Curry was the third best prospect in the 2009 NBA Draft.

I was wrong about Brandon Jennings. I thought he was too immature and I thought his talent was not sufficient to overcome his youthful indiscretions (i.e. - shot selection, leadership).

I rationalize my miscalculation on Jennings due to simply not being capable of seeing him enough. He was in Europe and all I had was stats, and my notes on him from watching him play in high-school all-star games. I don't have the resources that an NBA team has. I don't subscribe to any services (Synergy) that break down tape of players. But I do often wonder how much better at evaluating talent I might be if I could have access to the tools that an NBA scout has. I would LOVE to go to Portsmouth, Virginia for the P.I.T. or to the upcoming NBA Combine.

In lieu of actually attending - I scoured the box scores from Portsmouth and I will record whatever coverage of the combine that there is on ESPNU. (Can I host that show?)

Or maybe the reason I have had any success at evaluating individuals is simply because the majority of my evaluation comes from watching actual games. Meaningful ones too. By not seeing the P.I.T. or the Combine - I am affected less by what a player is "accomplishing" in basically a practice/scrimmage or workout. That is to say that I am less in love with a player's ability to be a "workout wonder" than I am in love with a player who I've seen star in a game. Who knows.

Reggie Williams is making us look smarter. The Golden State Warriors D-League call-up was a guy we had ranked 40th (or as the 10th pick in round two) in the 2008 NBA Draft. Williams was not selected by any team in that draft but through hard work and D League exposure, the NBA could not deny his talent any longer. Williams is averaging 15.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists for the Warriors through 22 games played since his call up from Sioux Falls.

Notes from midseason NBA efficiency audit. ...Who should be playing in Sacramento

Efficiency matters. The top five NBA Point Guards by efficiency are all on winning teams. The five are: Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups, and Rajon Rondo. At Shooting Guard - eight of the top ten (not counting Gilbert Arenas) are on teams that would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today. Those eight are: Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Brandon Roy, Manu Ginobili, Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, Jamal Crawford, and Vince Carter. The two exceptions are Nor-Cal’s Tyreke Evans (I call him a TWO), and Monta Ellis. Kevin Martin, who has yet to hit his stride since a return from injury, ranks eleventh. I, for one, am hopeful that the Kings do not trade Martin. Efficient Shooting Guards are a valuable commodity in the NBA and although I feel Evans and Martin duplicate each other to some degree - I think you could say the same of Johnson, and Crawford in Atlanta, and that is working out okay last time I checked. If Sacramento does not want to play Evans at Small Forward (where I believe he could play, thus opening up the PG for Sergio Rodriguez, or Beno Udrih) then maybe Martin needs to embrace a sixth man role because it is clear to me that the Kings offense is more cohesive with Rodriguez initiating it. Rodriguez actually gets the Kings into sets - giving a chance for movement by both ball and players. Yes, Rodriguez can be out of control but I think you have to live with that because of his uncanny vision and ability to involve teammates. It is a FACT that the great Steve Nash has more turnovers than any NBA player. It is also a fact that the more involved a player can be on offense - the more likely that player is to be enthused about playing defense. The Kings energy rises with Rodriguez (pictured) at the helm. The most efficient lineup the Kings can have (and this is pure science) is Rodriguez, Martin, Evans, Jason Thompson, and Spencer Hawes. Udrih would spell Rodriguez. Omri Casspi would replace either Martin or Evans, and Jon Brockman would be the first BIG off the bench. When Francisco Garcia returns - his historical efficiency would put him into the mix as the ninth man. The efficiency rating says that Andres Nocioni and Donte Greene would be seldom used as the tenth and eleventh players. Ime Udoka, Sean May, Kenny Thomas and Hilton Armstrong would be the odd men out in this plan. ...Oh yeah - I was breaking down the annual league wide mid-season efficiency rating audit when I digressed into my Kings rant. At Small Forward - four of the top five are on winning teams; Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, and Gerald Wallace. 70% is the number at Power Forward. Seven of the top-ten are on winning teams. Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Josh Smith, and Kevin Garnett are the seven. At Center we find that efficiency may not matter as much. Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, Nazr Mohammed, and Marc Gasol are the only top-ten Centers on current playoff teams. Meanwhile these five cats in the top-ten are on losing squads: Marcus Camby, Andrew Bogut, Brook Lopez, Samuel Dalembert, and Marresse Speights.