NBA Draft judgement; five years later.

2011 Draftees

You can judge an NBA Draft in the days after it is conducted if you like. It seems pointless to me. The truth is, none of us can predict the future. We are talking about young adults; young men in the age range of 18 to 23. I lived long enough to KNOW the unpredictably of the outcome for each individual. 

Draft report cards for 2016 will be produced. Media members, fans, and even some folks inside the basketball industry will continue to repeat uninformed comparisons. My favorite this year was that Buddy Hield "is J.J. Redick." 

In reality, where I prefer to dwell when it comes to player evaluation, Buddy Hield is a half-FOOT longer than Redick by wingspan. In 2016, details matter. Details have always mattered but in today's ultra-competitive world, let alone the NBA, you better be ELITE in your ability to pay attention to the details. 

A draft is the foundation. You can wheel and deal later. 

Every team should have a Draft plan. You need to know where each player is likely to be picked. It is all about getting value with each selection. Let's say you had three first round picks. Let's say those selections will be made at 15, 23, and 30. You must understand that if the guy you like fourth, overall on your draft board, is not likely to be picked until the late 20's, it makes no sense to pick that player using the 15th pick. That is what we call, wait for it... "premature edraftulation". 

You can get that player later at 23 if you play it safe, or you can gamble and try to get that guy at 30. So with selection 15 the prudent move is to pick another player you feel is the best guy that will certainly not be available when you pick again. 

The above scenario is just one of the reasons teams screw up in the NBA Draft. It may not be obvious 24 to 48 hours after a draft, but let that draft age five years and we can clearly see how present-day successful teams laid their foundation. 

In the 2011 NBA Draft, now ready to be judged, five NBA All-Stars were drafted. The group of five taken in 2011 are franchise pillars today. How about two guys that played in the NBA Finals? Kyrie Irving, the first pick in the 2011 NBA Draft by the World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers, and Klay Thompson who was selected eleventh from the previous year World Champion Golden State Warriors. The third All-Star? It was Kawhi Leonard, picked 15th for the 2014 World Champion San Antonio Spurs. 

Kyrie was at his best in the NBA Finals

Notice a pattern? 

If three of the guys picked in the top 15 were key contributors to NBA title runs, what about the other dozen teams that drafted in the top 15? How did they fare?

The results show that, in general, the teams that drafted a player that is still with them in 2016 did well and the others are now struggling (or continue to struggle). 

• Pick 2 - Derrick Williams - Minnesota. The T-Wolves were not a playoff team in 2015-16, and Williams has bounced from Minnesota to Sacramento to New York. 
• Pick 3 - Enes Kanter - Utah. The Jazz did not make the playoffs. Kanter successfully moved on via trade to Oklahoma City. 
• Pick 4 - Tristan Thompson - Cleveland. Thompson is the starting Center for the NBA Champs. 
• Pick 5 - Jonas Valanciunas - Toronto. Valanciunas is a key piece on a good playoff team.
• Pick 6 - Jan Vesely - Washington. The Wizards did not make the playoffs in 2015-16 and Vesely is out of the league. 
• Pick 7 - Bismack Biyombo - Charlotte. He was drafted by Sacramento for Charlotte on draft day. Biyombo signed as a free agent with Toronto for the 2015-16 season and played a supporting role in their success. 
• Pick 8 - Brandon Knight - Detroit. The Pistons made the Playoffs this season but not with Brandon Knight, He is on his third team, the Phoenix Suns. 
• Pick 9 - Kemba Walker - Kemba is a star guard for the Hornets who made the Playoffs. 
• Pick 10 - Jimmer Fredette - Sacramento. Milwaukee actually drafted Jimmer but he was being selected for the Kings. Fredette has played for four NBA teams, and is a fringe guy now that spent the majority of 2015-16 in the NBA D-League. 
• Pick 12 - Alec Burks - Utah. Burks was hurt last season but he has shown he can be a rotation player in the NBA. 
• Pick 13 - Markieff Morris - Phoenix. Despite his obvious skill, Markieff has had difficulty in human relations. Phoenix traded him to Washington. 
• Pick 14 - Marcus Morris - Houston. Marcus started the majority of the this season for the Detroit Pistons. He is on his third team after a stop in Phoenix. 

Isaiah was the steal of the 2011 NBA Draft

It seems pretty straight forward to me that the NBA Draft is really important to the chances of a team winning with consistency. 

The other two All-Stars from the 2011 Draft were Jimmy Butler (pick 30 by Chicago), and Isaiah Thomas (pick 60). The Celtics acquired Thomas via trade. 

In baseball, base hits matter. The same applies to the NBA Draft. There are a handful of solid to good players that were taken outside of the top 15 picks. Consider... Nikola Vucevic (16th), Iman Shumpert (17th), Tobias Harris (19th), Kenneth Faried (22nd), Nikola Mirotic (23rd), Reggie Jackson (24th), Cory Joseph (29th), Chandler Parsons (38th), and Jon Leuer (40th). 

The first round misses from the 2011 NBA Draft were off target for various reasons. We documented the top 15 above. Other poor selections in the first round were: Chris Singleton (18th by Washington), Nolan Smith (21st by Portland), JaJuan Johnson (27th by Boston). 

Our BasslineSpin / Hoop Obsession 2011 RE-Draft. (Done as if the draft were being held today, knowing what what know and trying to predict the future. Highly subjective)

1. Kawhi Leonard, 2. Klay Thompson, 3. Kyrie Irving, 4. Jimmy Butler, 5. Isaiah Thomas, 6. Kemba Walker, 7. Tobias Harris, 8. Enes Kanter, 9. Tristan Thompson, 10. Jonas Valanciunas, 11. Nikola Vucevic, 12. Reggie Jackson, 13. Bismack Biyombo, 14. Corey Joseph, 15. Brandon Knight, 16.  Chandler Parsons, 17. Kenneth Faried, 18. Jon Leuer, 19. LaVoy Allen, 20. Marcus Morris, 21. Alec Burks, 22. Nikola Mirotic, 23. Donatas Motiejunas, 24. Shelvin Mack, 25. Markieff Morris, 26. Derrick Williams, 27. Iman Shumpert, 28. E'Twaun Moore, 29. Norris Cole, 30. Kyle Singler. 

Las Vegas Summer League 2012 Awards

"It's just summer league.", said Geoff Petrie - Sacramento's Kings President of Basketball Operations. This was a couple years back in a brief conversation. His words should never be under-valued. NBA Summer League - while light years better in 2012 than it was in, say, 1988, is still largely made up of players who will NOT sniff an NBA roster. Nevertheless our love for basketball and curiosity for how players we've followed will fare in this organized setting is compelling enough for us to invest a significant amount of time in scouting the games. 

Each year of the Las Vegas Summer League - we do a "stat audit" after the dust has settled to see if what we thought we were seeing with the naked eye - matches what the numbers say. I justify the time and effort by simply wanting to be as informed as possible about all prospects. I continue to be a strong believer in being "data informed". When you can combine, serious observation (with note-taking), data, and a dash of common-sense - you become an educated scout. And sometimes the educated scout disagrees with the "herd". The "herd" in this instance is whatever was said, and repeated on "mass-media" websites such as NBA-TV, NBA.com, ESPN.com, etc..., ...All you really need to know about what you are about to read is that we are not paid by any team, agent, or media outlet. We watched and took notes on games, and then followed up each day with a report on the most efficient players at each position. The final step of this evaluation was to review notes, and manually punch in the numbers for the 246 players that played at least 40 minutes. ...Our final thoughts - with all things considered are listed below. 

We thought Terrence Jones was terrific. 

Our MVP: Terrence Jones – Houston. …Jones averaged 18 points and eight rebounds on 50% FG, 76% FT, and 33% 3-pt. The Rockets were 4-1.  Jones’ efficiency was a ridiculously good .778 in five games. He started just two of the games.  He had more assists than turnovers, and finished third in points per minute, and fifth in rebounds per minute. 

Our First Team All Las Vegas Summer League:

PG: Josh Selby – Memphis. …Selby posted the highest efficiency rating (for those who played over 78 minutes) of the LVSL. He was officially named co-MVP (with Damian Lillard). Selby averaged 24 points per game on 55% FG, 89% FT. He made 27 threes on 64% 3-pt fg. I have a rule (for summer league or ANY league) that I can not choose a league most valuable player from a team with a losing record. Memphis went 2-3. 

SG: Damian Lillard – Portland. …Lillard averaged 26.5 points per game! He also had 5.3 assists, and four rebounds each contest. He showed the ability to play with a "pro's pace". He hit difficult shots with both hands while showing he understands how to run a team, and manage the clock. 

SF:  Adam Morrison – Clippers. …Morrison scored 20 points per game while snaring five rebounds each contest. He shot well: 55% FG, 61% 3-pt., 78% FT.  

       

PF: Malcolm Thomas – Bulls. …Thomas was a rebounding machine in Vegas. He averaged 12.4 boards to go with 11.4 points per game.  He shot 53% FG, and 78% FT.

C:  Donatas Motiejunas – Houston.  …Motiejunas scored 16 points and grabbed 7.8 rebounds per game. He shot 62% FG. The Rockets were 4-1.

Our Second Team All Las Vegas Summer League: 

PG: Dionte Christmas – Boston. …Christmas averaged 12 points, six rebounds, and four assists. His assist-to-turnover ratio was better than 3-to-1.  

Harris played smartly

SG: Terrel Harris – Miami. …Harris played ball at a high level in Las Vegas. He scored 15.5 ppg, and he was a thief – with 3.5 steals per game.  His assist-to-turnover ratio was over 4-to-1. He hit 17-19 free throws (89%). 

SF: Jordan Hamilton – Denver.  …Hamilton averaged 19.2 points, and 6.4 rebounds. He displayed playmaking skills with a 1.5-to-1 ast-to-turnover ratio.

PF: Markieff Morris – Phoenix. …Morris was a shade under “20 & 10”. He averaged 19.8 ppg, and 9.8 rpg in five games. He was 26 of 29 from the FT line (89.7%).  

C:  Bernard James – Dallas. James was as advertised defensively. He blocked 2.6 shots per game, and grabbed nine rebounds per game. He scored ten ppg – on 60% FG.  

Top five players per position by efficiency. …78 minutes played minimum.      

Point Guards	Shooting Guards	Small Forwards	Power Forwards	Centers
Josh Selby .982	Terrel Harris .686	Terrence Jones .778	Malcolm Thomas .734	Donatas Motiejunas .740
Dionte Christmas .629	Coby Karl .655	Adam Morrison .607	Markieff Morris .712	Bernard James .702
Damian Lillard .626	Jordan Hamilton .579	Jimmy Butler .563	Samardo Samuels .692	Keith Benson .661
Dominique Jones .556	Jeremy Lamb .534	Tobias Harris .557	Ed Davis .650	Tyler Zeller .655
Aaron Miles .554	Kent Bazemore .524	Drew Viney .539	Denzel Bowles .630	John Henson .592

They did well with the minutes they were given. This is a list of the top seven efficiency ratings of those who played between 40-77 minutes.

Akognon: scoring machine!

Josh Akognon – SAC .982 (Akognon was a scoring machine in his 55 minutes. He scored 58 points and averaged 19 a game off the bench.)

Nolan Smith – POR .780

Luke Harangody – CLE .778

Klay Thompson – GSW .763

Talor Battle – LAC .671

Jarrid Famous – MIL .646

Dexter Pittman – MIA .645

They didn’t play well… This is a list of the five lowest efficiency ratings of guys that played at least 78 minutes…

Marquis Teague – CHI .095

Ramone Moore – CHI .103

Antoine Wright – LAC .148

Darius Johnson-Odom – LAL .152

Chris Smith – NYK .165

Scorers …This a list of the top-eight in points per minute (78 minutes minimum).

Josh Selby – MEM .883 ppm

Damian Lillard – POR .809 ppm

Terrence Jones – HOU .722 ppm

Jeremy Lamb – HOU .685 ppm

Wes Johnson – MIN .683 ppm

Adam Morrison – LAC .667 ppm

Donatas Motiejunas – HOU .663 ppm

Markieff Morris – PHX .647 ppm

Rebounders …This is a list of the top-eight in rebounds per minute (78 minutes minimum).

Malcolm Thomas – CHI .446 rpm

Denzel Bowles – NO .407 rpm

Bernard James – DAL .344 rpm

Ed Davis – TOR .343 rpm

Terrence Jones – HOU .341 rpm

Eric Dawson – SA .333 rpm

Thomas Robinson – SAC .331 rpm

Samardo Samuels – CLE .327 rpm 

Karl was virtually mistake free.

Ball-Handlers / Decision Makers  …This is a list of the top-eight assist-to-turnover ratios (78 minutes minimum)

Coby Karl – MIN 7.5 to 1

Marcus Hubbard – LAC 7 to 1

Kemba Walker – CHA 5.8 to 1

Zoran Dragic – HOU 5 to 1

Terrel Harris – MIA 4.5 to 1

Aaron Miles – MIL 4 to 1

Jordan Taylor – ATL 3.5 to 1

Dionte Christmas – BOS 3.33 to 1

They get to the line! …This is a list of the top-eight in free throw attempts per minute (78 minutes minimum)

Derrick Williams - MIN .389

Ed Davis – TOR .292

Jimmer Fredette – SAC .278

Jimmy Butler – CHI .275

Thomas Robinson – SAC .264

Samardo Samuels – CLE .250

Norris Cole – MIA .242

Bradley Beal – WA .235

Rim Protectors / Defenders …This is a list of the top-eight in blocked shots per minute (78 minutes minimum)

Bernard James – DAL .10

Festus Ezeli – GSW .10

Keith Benson – ATL .09

Henry Sims – CHI .09

Hilton Armstrong – LAC .09

Bismack Biyombo – CHA .09

Kent Bazemore – GSW .09

Mitchell Watt – MEM .08