2015-16 Crystal Ball

The NBA season is here! Rejoice!

So who wins it all? I like the Golden State Warriors to repeat as NBA Champions. Their depth, and ability to defend combined with Stephen Curry, the reigning Most Valuable Player, make the Warriors my choice in a quick series facing Eastern Conference champs, the Atlanta Hawks. 

Say what? The Atlanta Hawks? 

Yes. The Atlanta Hawks. Jeff Teague continues to improve, and his backup Dennis Schroder could start for several NBA teams. Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford are all top-tier players at their respective positions. The addition of Tiago Splitter and the subtraction of Pero Antic makes the Hawks significantly better when Millsap and Horford are out of the game. To top it off, I like their coach Mike Budenholzer. 

Why not Cleveland? It will be close and it could very well be the Cavs representing the East. I just happen to give the edge to Atlanta. Last season the Hawks were 3-5 against the Cavs. Is it really such a stretch to see them improve by a game or two? We think not. 

New and Improved?

The Boston Celtics look to be improved this season. Already one of the deepest teams in the NBA, the C's added David Lee and Amir Johnson to their front court rotation. Coach Brad Stevens is a guy we believe in as both a communicator and as a 'basketball mind'. 
The Miami Heat should return to being a 50-plus-win team this season thanks to a healthy Chris Bosh, and a full season of Goran Dragic running the point. Gerald Green scoring off the bench, and a full season of Hassan Whiteside manning the paint will help too.

Who will win 2015-16 MVP?

We will go with James Harden, the most productive player in the game that is also efficient. However, the MVP race should be very close. Curry, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Anthony Davis all figure to challenge Harden.

If you were starting a franchise today and could sign any player in the NBA, who would it be? 
Anthony Davis. He is just now 22 years old. Had he been a four-year college player, this would be his rookie NBA season. 

Freaky deeky!

Which player is most likely to have a breakout season in 2015-16?
We like three players in this category but Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way, with Meyers Leonard and Reggie Jackson deserving consideration. 

Which team made the best overall moves this offseason? 
San Antonio with the additions of LaMarcus Aldridge, and David West. 

Which one player acquisition will make the biggest impact? 
LaMarcus Aldridge in a Spurs uniform. 

What was the most underrated player acquisition? 
Jeremy Lamb has a chance to flourish in Charlotte  if he receives the playing time. Ty Lawson will make the Rockets better offensively. But the most underrated addition in our opinion is Cleveland adding Mo Williams. He is a major efficiency upgrade from non-scorer, Matthew Dellevadova. LeBron James will enjoy having a shot maker, in Williams, as a teammate. 

Who will win Rookie of the Year?
Karl Anthony Towns is our pick but we think Stanley Johnson, and Myles Turner will make some noise in this race. Towns is a BIG that has the finesse to shoot 81% from the free-throw line. He is still learning to play in the low post but he is accurate and focused with his touch near the basket. He provides a paint presence that any NBA team could use. 

Which rookie was the biggest steal at where he was selected in the Draft? 
Rondae Hollis Jefferson slipped to being the 23rd selection. We like his ability to defend and finish in transition.  He is an unquestioned NBA athlete that probably should have been picked in the top dozen. 

            

NBA Most Improved Player

Greek Freak(y) good!

The Most Improved Player award annually has multiple strong candidates. This year is no exception. Giannis Antetokounmpo has nearly doubled his scoring average from last season. Rudy Gobert helped make the Utah Jazz defense do a 180-degree spin from being terrible to being very good. Jeff Teague and teammate Kyle Korver went from being good players to being All-Stars. Their younger teammate Dennis Schroder barely played last season but this year Schroder has been a dependable backup point guard on the best team in the East. Brandon Knight stepped up his game. Khris Middleton quietly did too. Klay Thompson improved his efficiency by going to the basket more often. Jimmy Butler went from being a solid player averaging 13 points per game to a guy that gets 20 a night for the Chicago Bulls. Evan Turner was virtually left for dead in Indiana at the end of last season, and now he is relevant again after a solid year in Boston. Victor Oladipo made strides in Orlando this season as compared to last. Certainly Draymond Green should be in the mix as well. Donatas Motiejunas parlayed a successful Summer League into a really nice year for the Houston Rockets. Hassan Whiteside was not even in the NBA last season. In 2015, Whiteside has emerged as a legitimate BIG in the league. 

If you are scoring at home we just named 14 players that we think a case could be made for. But let's define "most improved". Is it actually for the player that improved the most? Or is it for the guy who was already pretty good but just was not getting the minutes? As you may have guessed, I like to see who actually improved their game. We can do that by looking at the efficiency per minute from one season to the next, and also by the defensive rating from one season to the next. 

Efficiency improvement from 2013-14 to 2014-15 

Whiteside DNP to .814 = +.814
Schroder .253 to .485 = +.232
Butler .366 to .555 = +.189
Gobert: .488 to .673 = +.185
Thompson .403 to .572 = +.169
Antetokounmpo .371 to .512 = +.141
Green .469 to .582 = +.113
Middleton .387 to .464 = +.077
Teague .500 to .573 = +.073
Motiejunas .409 to .471 = +.062
Turner .427 to .476 = +.049
Knight .459 to .498 = +.039
Oladipo .425 to .464 = +.039
Korver .417 to .441 = +.024

Defensive Rating improvement from 2013-14* to 2014-15

Knight 114 to 104 = +10
Antetokounmpo 110 to 101 = +9
Middleton 111 to 103 = +8
*Whiteside 102 (2011-12) to 96 = +6
Gobert: 104 to 98 = +6
Teague 109 to 104 = +5
Turner 109 to 104 = +5
Schroder 110 to 106 = +4
Thompson 106 to 103 = +3
Green 98 to 96 = +2
Korver 108 to 106 = +2
Motiejunas 106 to 105 = +1
Oladipo 106 to 108 = -2
Butler 100 to 105 = -5

Gobert's D is real. 

The fact that Jimmy Butler's defensive rating took a major hit as his offense improved is enough for me to rule him out in this, winner take all Most Improved Player award, race. Since Hassan Whiteside only played in 43 games this season it is difficult, in my way of thinking, to give him the nod over others who played a full season. ...Oladipo's defense actually took a step backward while he just gained a slight uptick in efficiency. Ultimately, Oladipo is out of consideration. Green has been brilliant this season and while his overall production is up significantly, we always thought he was good. He improved but mostly because his role was expanded. ...Knight, Motiejunas, Turner, Teague, Middleton, and Thompson all improved but cannot make the claim as MOST improved. There can only be one. For us, it really is a tight race between Schroder, Gobert, and the "Greek Freak" (Antetokounmpo). 

While Gobert and Schroder have unquestionably improved their play, we feel like Antetokounmpo made the biggest leap. As a rookie he often looked clueless at both ends of the floor. Now we see glimpses of a player that has a chance to excel as a two-way star in the league. By any measure, Antetokounmpo (age 20) already ranks in the top-tier of NBA small forwards. He improved his defensive rating by a full nine points (110 to 101) from 2013-14 to 2014-15. His per-minute efficiency improved dramatically with a better shot selection this season. 

Again, we think it is close, but in our opinion, it is Antetokounmpo by a vowel over fellow international ballers Gobert and Schroder for the 2014-15 NBA Most Improved Player.  

Halfway. Small Forwards. Notes from NBA Stat Audit.

Every year after each team has played their 41st game of the NBA season, I do a statistical audit of the players in the league, looking specifically at efficiency per-minute. I analyze each player that has logged at least 300 minutes, plus a select few others that are of note. Here is a quick synopsis on NBA small forwards halfway through the 2013-14 season...

Small Forwards

Top five EFR's overall in 1991-92:
David Robinson, Michael Jordan,
Karl Malone, Hakeem Olajuwon,
and Brad Daugherty. 

The best basketball player in the world plays small forward. Kevin Durant leads the NBA with a ridiculously high efficiency rating of .850. I've been looking at the same efficiency per-minute rating system for north of 25 years. It is VERY RARE to see a player with an EFR at .850 or above. When I have seen that, the player has been a Center. I can recall David Robinson having an EFR of .865 for the 1991-92 season. So, to see Durant do his thing as a "wing" player is very impressive.  

LeBron James ranks second at .776, followed by Carmelo Anthony .658, and Paul George at .618. Those four are the only "threes" that are above .600.

The disparity between the "have's" and "have nots" in the NBA at small forward is huge. There are only four more guys who rate above .500 (Kawhi Leonard, Nic Batum, Thad Young, and Rudy Gay). 

As always, we like to see who ranks in the top 30 at the position that is presently not starting or playing heavy minutes. We find four such cases ...Mirza Teletovic, who some say is a power forward, ranks 15th. Marcus Morris (Phoenix) ranks 18th and in our opinion could make a good case for getting starters minutes in front of P.J. Tucker. Draymond Green ranks 22nd, well ahead of teammate Harrison Barnes (51st). Barnes plays 29 minutes per game. Green plays 19. Maybe the Warriors should look into reversing those numbers.  ...Shawne Williams, waived by the Lakers, was playing out of position in Los Angeles. He is more of a small forward, with his ability to stretch the floor. He ranked 30th. Perhaps he will find his way back into the NBA as a three-man. Williams recently landed with the D-League's L.A. Defenders. 

Antetokounmpo = future star. 

On the flip side, who is ranked outside the top 30 at small forward, that plays starters minutes? There are five: Jeff Green (31st), Matt Barnes (38th), Richard Jefferson (44th), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (45th), and Corey Brewer (46th). It says here that the Minnesota Timberwolves could really help themselves with a more efficient small forward other than Brewer. 

The highest rated rookie small forward is 19 year old Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. He ranks 29th at the position, or already worth of being a low-tier starter. His upside seems virtually unlimited. 


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