Free Agency Bonanza

Bazemore offers two-way value

The NBA free agency bonanza will begin later tonight. Your favorite team is probably, at minimum, going to have discussions with potential players and their representatives. We have seen reports of teams liking some players that we deem sketchy. A mistake in free agency can be costly to a team's future. It should be all about getting VALUE, and being realistic about your team's place in the NBA. 

So, as a public service, we are going to list the 15 players (among point guards and wings) that we would be targeting. As always, our lists are based on a combination of knowing the landscape of the NBA, being "data-informed", and perhaps most importantly, "feel". 

Kevin Durant - We pride ourselves on independent thought and not necessarily following the herd. However, in the case, the mass media has it right. "KD" is the main man. Durant is the definition of a "max player" in the NBA. 

Nicolas Batum - A top flight NBA small forward is a commodity. Batum is a top-ten offensive efficiency guy at his position. On D, he's in the top 20 among small forwards. 

Kent Bazemore - He is a terrific wing defender and he has improved enough on offense that he should be ranked much higher than what we believe his perceived value is. 

Turner is a play-maker

Evan Turner - The theme is two-way play. Turner can be a playmaker and he can also team defend with the best in the NBA at the wing. Turner's DEFRTG of 100 ranked 14th out of 109 shooting guards. 

Manu Ginobili - There is probably zero chance he goes anywhere but San Antonio but this certain Hall of Fame combo guard is worth every penny. He can still play and he can mentor. 

Marvin Williams - After years of teasing with his talent, Williams has become a real pro ball player. His shot selection is better, and he can guard multiple positions, including some small forwards which is why he cracked this list. 

Jonas Jerebko - We are still waiting to see what Jerebko might be able to produce if was given 20-plus minutes per game as a wing. His DEFRTG of 98.5 was good enough for tenth among small forwards in 2015-16

Harrison Barnes - We like Harrison Barnes but we are also pretty sure someone is going to overpay for him. 

DeMar DeRozan - See above. 

Tyler Johnson - In our opinion, Johnson, along with Bazemore, are the two guys who offer REAL value. You could probably sign Johnson for a fraction of what DeRozan will cost. Yet, in our opinion, the gap between the two on the floor is a lot smaller than most would think it is. 

Jeremy Lin - Lin showed again last season that he can be a valuable combo guard. He is a smart team defender and a good teammate. 

Dwyane Wade - You figure he stays in Miami. His price will be high. But quality is quality. 

Luol Deng - An absolute pro's pro. Deng remains among the few who rate in the top 30 at their position on both offense and defense. 

Mike Conley - The only point guard we think is really worthy of BIG money in this free-agent class. 

Wesley Johnson - Johnson is a top-tier wing defender. His offense is mostly about the three-ball but he isn't as far off as he once was. 

Hopefully, your team does not screw it up. 

Halfway. Small Forwards. Notes from NBA Stat Audit.

Every year after each team has played their 41st game of the NBA season, I do a statistical audit of the players in the league, looking specifically at efficiency per-minute. I analyze each player that has logged at least 300 minutes, plus a select few others that are of note. Here is a quick synopsis on NBA small forwards halfway through the 2013-14 season...

Small Forwards

Top five EFR's overall in 1991-92:
David Robinson, Michael Jordan,
Karl Malone, Hakeem Olajuwon,
and Brad Daugherty. 

The best basketball player in the world plays small forward. Kevin Durant leads the NBA with a ridiculously high efficiency rating of .850. I've been looking at the same efficiency per-minute rating system for north of 25 years. It is VERY RARE to see a player with an EFR at .850 or above. When I have seen that, the player has been a Center. I can recall David Robinson having an EFR of .865 for the 1991-92 season. So, to see Durant do his thing as a "wing" player is very impressive.  

LeBron James ranks second at .776, followed by Carmelo Anthony .658, and Paul George at .618. Those four are the only "threes" that are above .600.

The disparity between the "have's" and "have nots" in the NBA at small forward is huge. There are only four more guys who rate above .500 (Kawhi Leonard, Nic Batum, Thad Young, and Rudy Gay). 

As always, we like to see who ranks in the top 30 at the position that is presently not starting or playing heavy minutes. We find four such cases ...Mirza Teletovic, who some say is a power forward, ranks 15th. Marcus Morris (Phoenix) ranks 18th and in our opinion could make a good case for getting starters minutes in front of P.J. Tucker. Draymond Green ranks 22nd, well ahead of teammate Harrison Barnes (51st). Barnes plays 29 minutes per game. Green plays 19. Maybe the Warriors should look into reversing those numbers.  ...Shawne Williams, waived by the Lakers, was playing out of position in Los Angeles. He is more of a small forward, with his ability to stretch the floor. He ranked 30th. Perhaps he will find his way back into the NBA as a three-man. Williams recently landed with the D-League's L.A. Defenders. 

Antetokounmpo = future star. 

On the flip side, who is ranked outside the top 30 at small forward, that plays starters minutes? There are five: Jeff Green (31st), Matt Barnes (38th), Richard Jefferson (44th), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (45th), and Corey Brewer (46th). It says here that the Minnesota Timberwolves could really help themselves with a more efficient small forward other than Brewer. 

The highest rated rookie small forward is 19 year old Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. He ranks 29th at the position, or already worth of being a low-tier starter. His upside seems virtually unlimited. 


Read Shooting Guards
Read Small Forwards
Read Power Forwards
Read Centers

Latest NBA Stat Audit

Data informed. That's how we roll.

Our latest NBA stat audit is complete. We look closely at per-minute efficiency twice a month. In an effort to share more with you - we will simply list on this blog what would normally be 'chicken scratched' onto a blank piece of computer printer paper.

Point Guards: Chris Paul .778, Stephen Curry .634, Russell Westbrook .626, Isaiah Thomas .580, Michael Carter-Williams .559, John Wall .555,  Ty Lawson .554, Damian Lillard .543, Kyle Lowry .543, Tony Parker .542, Goran Dragic .536, Mike Conley Jr. .526, Jrue Holiday .522, Kyrie Irving .520, Darren Collison .504, Kendall Marshall .504, Ricky Rubio .502, Deron Williams .501, Reggie Jackson .495, Jordan Farmar .495, Jeff Teague .479, Kemba Walker .471, Brandon Jennings .453.

Shooting Guards: Dwyane Wade .616, Manu Ginobili .604, James Harden .578, Eric Bledsoe .564, Tyreke Evans .542, Monta Ellis .495, Arron Afflalo .495, J.J. Redick .490, Lance Stephenson .489, Wesley Matthews .482, C.J. McCollum .481, Jimmer Fredette .477, Marco Belinelli .476, Kevin Martin .466, Evan Turner .465, Jordan Crawford .462,  Jeremy Lamb .452, Tony Allen .437

Durant ranks second to Love overall

Small Forwards: Kevin Durant .830, LeBron James .783, Carmelo Anthony .635, Paul George .603, Kawhi Leonard .530, Nicolas Batum .522, Rudy Gay .504, Luol Deng .494, Chandler Parsons .493, Gordon Hayward .487, Al Farouq Aminu .480, Trevor Ariza .470, Andre Iguodala .469, Marcus Morris .465, Jordan Hamilton .459, Josh Smith .456, DeMar DeRozan .455, C.J. Miles .445,

Power Forwards: Kevin Love .833, Anthony Davis .738, LeMarcus Aldridge .701, Blake Griffin .698, Al Horford .685, Jordan Hill .679, Dirk Nowitzki .674, Brandan Wright .656, David Lee .646, Kris Humphries .634, Kenneth Faried .624, John Henson .619, Paul Millsap .610, DaJuan Blair .609, Serge Ibaka .592, J.J. Hickson .576, Zach Randolph .567, Terrence Jones .559, Jeremy Evans .558, Thaddeus Young .554, Andray Blatche .551, James Johnson .550, Miles Plumlee .546, Michael Beasley .543, Ed Davis .541, Jared Sullinger .540, Mike Scott .539, Thomas Robinson .536, David West .531.

Centers: DeMarcus Cousins .810, Tim Duncan .697, Dwight Howard .675, Brook Lopez .675, Andre Drummond .659, Andrew Bogut .649, Pau Gasol .621, Spencer Hawes .620, Nikola Vucevic .619, Nikola Pekovic .605, Joakim Noah .602, DeAndre Jordan .601, Al Jefferson .600, Timofey Mosgov .594, Marc Gasol .587, Chris Bosh .573, Anderson Varejao .573, Chris Kamen .573, Derrick Favors .568, Tiago Splitter .562, Samuel Dalembert .551, Kosta Koufos .549, Roy Hibbert .542, Greg Monroe .536, Marcin Gortat .531.

Rookies: Carter-Williams .559, Steven Adams .489, McCollum .481, Mason Plumlee .468, Rudy Gobert .448, Vitor Faverani .437, Alex Len .426, Giannis Antetokounmpo .425, Trey Burke .419, Kelly Olynyk .417, Victor Oladipo .399, Tim Hardaway Jr. .371, Cody Zeller .369, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope .274, Archie Goodwin .256, Tony Snell .250, Shane Larkin .248, Ben McLemore .247, Ray McCallum .227, Dennis Schroeder .222, Otto Porter Jr. .211, Anthony Bennett .165, Shabazz Muhammad .098.

Lottery leads to all things NBA Draft

The NBA Draft Lottery offered clarity in the order of selections for the June 23rd NBA Draft. The Lottery is a bit like when Santa Claus appears in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. It symbolizes the start of the "Draft season". ...The Pre Draft combine starts tomorrow in Chicago and we will begin to get into the nitty gritty of measurements, and testing results. But as previously stated - nothing beats actually having watched full games in their proper context.

Most of my feelings on 2011 Draft prospects are set. Certainly I will continue to filter all of the information I can stomach but it seems funny to me that so much attention is placed on the combine where the players NEVER actually play ANY games or team basketball.

How would Dirk Nowitzki fare in the weight lifting and running and jumping tests were he to be subjected to them? Remember when Kevin Durant couldn’t lift the bench bar once? The information gleaned at the combine IS a piece to the puzzle but it should be a nano-particle size piece.

…Here are some players I believe could have easily been invited to Chicago but somehow were shut out:
 

Mario Little - Kansas - This one really stumps me overall. I search for any news regarding Little and the NBA and I come up empty. Didn't anyone watch Kansas games this year. Little outplayed Josh Selby by miles.


Justin Brownlee - St. John's - NBA body - and he can make mid-range shots. He moves the ball - and sees the floor very well - often winding up with assists - passing from the hi-post. …Has a dependable turn around, fade away jump shot that is hard to guard. ...He rebounds outside his area. Quick enough that he will take almost any opposing PF off the dribble. ...Powerful enough to take contact and still hit a shot.