NBA All Rookie Team 2014-15

Mirotic is a quality rookie forward

The All-Rookie Team in the NBA is as subjective as you would like to make it. In a season such as this one, I'd bet many voters had a hard time coming up with ten rookie names. The NBA All-Rookie Teams are one award that, to us, is annually goofed up by voters putting too much value in per-game averages. That is how you get Gary Neal on the First Team in 2010-11 ahead of Eric Bledsoe or Derrick Favors. In 2012-13 It was Dion Waiters making the First Team ahead of Andre Drummond. 

It is understandable. Many voters simply compare per-game averages of players and roll with the guy who has the higher numbers. But what if the guy with the higher numbers is playing eight minutes more per-game simply because his team stinks, and is "in the tank"? 

Our issue with using per-game averages as the most important factor is that - not all teams are playing guys the same way. For instance, a rookie on the San Antonio Spurs, a veteran laden, championship winning team, is not going to have anywhere close to the equal amount of opportunities a rookie in Philadelphia will get. By breaking production down to a per-minute basis, we can "level the court" somewhat. 

Since we are way more obsessive than most, and for the sake of further educating ourselves, we took the time to closely examine 44 rookie NBA players, vying for ten spots on the All-Rookie Teams. 

Per-minute efficiency can help focus in on who has a chance to play for years in the NBA. Almost without fail, low-efficiency guys will fade away, into the D-League, or perhaps overseas.  We also believe the defensive aspect of the game is lost too often when it comes to NBA All-Rookie teams. 

We used the following criteria and formula... Total Production - 40% (efficiency rating multiplied by number of minutes played), Efficiency Rating (per-minute) 30%, Defensive Rating 20%, and number of wins 10%. ...We then built two teams using the data and our feel as a guide.

2014-15 NBA All-Rookie First Team

Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Mirotic, Nerlens Noel. 

All Rookie Second Team: 

Jordan Clarkson, Zach LaVine, Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker, Jusuf Nurkic. 

Players who were close to making our lists included: Tarik Black, Mitch McGary, James Ennis, K.J. McDaniels, Cory Jefferson, and Langston Galloway. 

NBA Defensive Player of the Year

Draymond will check a point guard.

Your eyes can fool you when it comes to defense. A steal or a blocked shot catch the eye, and are among the traditional statistics tracked and published. In most cases, a steal or a blocked shot is a good thing. However, if a player gambles for a steal, and misses, (as many of the steals leaders do), the TEAM defense is now playing four against five. Likewise, a shot may be attempted to be blocked, which leads to an opening for the opponent on the offensive glass. 

Taking a charge is STILL not a statistic that shows up in the NBA box-score. (You can find charges taken total at http://www.nbaminer.com/player-foul-details/). 

So, what IS the best way to measure defense? That is a tough question, not easily answered. The "Defensive Rating" stat is our preferred method these days. Defensive Rating measures the number of points scored by the opponent per 100 possessions when any given player is on the floor. 

Recently, I heard someone in the NBA, whom I respect, say that LeBron James was the best defender out of the group of MVP candidates (Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook). That declaration struck me. While LeBron is a freak, and I would have no issue riding with him for a single defensive possession, there are now measurables that go deeper than just a single possession, that suggest there are better choices than LeBron. 

Modern statistical advances now allow us to tabulate how many points the opponent scores on EVERY possession that LeBron, or ANY OTHER player is on the floor. In any one game a single NBA team will average roughly 98 possessions. The Defensive Rating makes it impossible for a player to "take a play off" without it being tracked. Other subtleties that used to go unnoticed include a player who draws technical fouls and gives free points to the opponent in the form of technical free throws. The Defensive Rating tracks all these nuances.  

No ole'.  Defensive Rating catches you.

The issue with using Defensive Rating as the "be all, end all" is that all individual Defensive Ratings are subject to who your four other teammates are. Backline defenders who play with slower, poor, defensive guards, will allow more points per 100 possessions than backline defenders who play, with say, a ball-pressure hawk like Patrick Beverley. Guards who play with great rim protectors (like Rudy Gobert) will see their Defensive Ratings improve. If a guard plays with an undersized center, the guard's defensive rating can suffer. 

The way around some of this confusion is to look at the team's defensive rating and see what players individually are above or below their own team average. 

All of the above prefacing is simply to help non hardcore basketball fans understand how difficult it can be to measure defense, which is rarely highlighted but remains HALF of the game. 

To decide on the NBA Defensive Player of the Year, we looked at four key defensive statistics, and ranked 20 potential candidates. The 20 players comprised any who ranked in the top five in one of the four categories plus others known as great defenders (Marc Gasol, Tony Allen, LeBron, Nerlens Noel, Russell Westbrook).  We assigned points in each category (Defensive Rating 50%, Charges Taken 20%, Steals 15%, Blocked Shots 15%).  

Our method crowned Draymond Green the 2014-15 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. The versatile forward checks perimeter players or BIGs. He has anchored the Warriors defense all season. When Green is on the floor the Warriors give up just 97 points per 100 possessions. The team as a whole has a Defensive Rating of 100.7 which is the best of the 30 teams in the NBA. 

Our top five NBA defenders of 2014-15? Green, followed Bogut, Noel, Leonard, and Gobert. As for LeBron... In our study, he ranked only ahead of Westbrook when it comes to the five players most mentioned in the MVP race. (If you are curious, in our defensive study, Curry edged Davis, followed by Harden, then LeBron, then Westbrook.)

(You can see how each of the 20 D.P.o.Y. candidates ranked  in each category below.)

Blocked shots (total) (15% weight)

Anthony Davis 183
Rudy Gobert 174
DeAndre Jordan 171
Serge Ibaka 155
Nerlens Noel 140
Tim Duncan 137
Marc Gasol 125
DeMarcus Cousins 103
Andrew Bogut 100
Draymond Green 94
James Harden 56
Kawhi Leonard 46
LeBron James 46
Marreese Speights 34
Tony Allen 30
Monta Ellis 24
Stephen Curry 16
Russell Westbrook 14
Chris Paul 13
Kyle Lowry 12

Charges Taken (20% weight)

DeMarcus Cousins 34
Monta Ellis 28
Marreese Speights 28
Kyle Lowry 25
Steph Curry 12
Draymond Green 11
Marc Gasol 8
Russell Westbrook 6
LeBron James 4
Andrew Bogut 3
James Harden 3
Nerlens Noel 3
Chris Paul 2
Anthony Davis 1
Rudy Gobert 1
Tim Duncan 0
Kawhi Leonard 0
Serge Ibaka 0
DeAndre Jordan 0
Tony Allen 0

Defensive Rating (50% weight)

Andrew Bogut 96
Draymond Green 96.5
Kawhi Leonard 96.6
Tim Duncan 97.2
Rudy Gobert 98
Tony Allen 98.4
Nerlens Noel 98.5
DeAndre Jordan 99
Marc Gasol 99.7
Anthony Davis 100.2
DeMarcus Cousins 100.8
Stephen Curry 101
James Harden 102
Marreese Speights 102
Serge Ibaka 103
LeBron James 105
Chris Paul 105
Monta Ellis 107
Russell Westbrook 107
Kyle Lowry 108

Steals (total) (15%)

Stephen Curry 151 
Chris Paul 147
Monta Ellis 145
James Harden 144 
Nerlens Noel 131
Tony Allen 129
Kawhi Leonard 129
Russell Westbrook 129
Draymond Green 117
LeBron James 102
Kyle Lowry 102
Anthony Davis 90
DeMarcus Cousins 89
DeAndre Jordan 73
Marc Gasol 67
Rudy Gobert 58
Tim Duncan 56
Andrew Bogut 38
Serge Ibaka 30
Marreese Speights 16

The 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year is...

Noel should be the NBA R.o.Y.

Let's face it, this 2014-15 class of NBA rookies has been disappointing as a whole. In a league of grown men, the NBA rookie is lucky to get minutes on a good team. On a bad team, a rookie may find it easier to play extended time. This fact muddies the water when trying to sift out which rookie has been the league Rookie of the Year. In many cases, activity is confused for achievement. For franchises that are in rebuilding mode, the coach may be encouraged to play rookies as many minutes as they can handle. 

So how do we decide who should be Rookie of the Year? I want to go deeper than simply giving it to the guy with the highest scoring average. This is where our efficiency rating (per-minute) comes in handy. The "EFR" tells us who is actually achieving out there. We then will multiply the EFR number by the number of minutes played to find out who has actually produced the most. 

Defense is usually not considered much when thinking about Rookie of the Year. But it should be. It's half of the game of basketball. And I also think we should consider the team's record. 

The candidates worthy of consideration are: Jordan Clarkson, Zach LaVine, Nikola Mirotic, Nerlens Noel, Jusef Nurkic, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart, and Andrew Wiggins. 

Using a simple point system, we will rank each player in the three categories we mentioned above. The most important category is total production, followed by defensive rating, and then team record. We will weigh the point system so that team record is worth only half of the value of total production and defensive rating. 

Total production: 

Noel: EFR .508 x 2240 = 1137.9
Wiggins: EFR .370 x 2683 = 992.7
Payton: EFR .427 x 2225 = 950
Mirotic: EFR .564 x 1494 = 842.6
Nurkic: EFR .583 x 984 =  573.6
Clarkson: EFR .470 x 1218 = 572.4
LaVine: EFR .348 x 1621 = 564.1
Smart: EFR .351 x 1597 = 560.5

The EFR suggests that if Mirotic played for a team other than Chicago, where he plays behind Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, and Taj Gibson, Mirotic would likely stand out more. 

 Mirotic on a bad team = numbers would swell.

Defensive Rating:

Noel 98.1
Nurkic 98.6
Mirotic 101.5
Smart 105.1
Payton 106.9
LaVine 112.3
Clarkson 113.6
Wiggins 114

Team Record:

Mirotic 45-30
Smart: 34-41
Nurkic 28-47
Payton 22-53
Clarkson 20-54
Noel: 18-58
Wiggins 16-59
LaVine 16-59

Using the method described above to come up with a total for each player, we find that Nerlens Noel comes out as our choice for Rookie of the Year, narrowly edging out Nikola Mirotic. (Totals: Noel 17.5, Mirotic 17, Nurkic 14, Payton 12.5, Smart 9.5, Wiggins 8.75, Clarkson 7, LaVine 5.75.)

The points system we used was harsh to Andrew Wiggins. But that is why we do this. While Wiggins has had more highlight dunks than any of the other rookies, his defense has been horrid, and his team has lost more games than any of the other candidates (except his own teammate, LaVine). 

...So voters go forward with Nerlens Noel as your 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year. He has the most total production AND the best defensive rating among those considered. Those are two good reasons to give Noel the nod. 

2014 NBA Summer League. KCP hits game winner to highlight day four.

KCP is cookin' in Orlando 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is looking like a potential full-time starting shooting guard for the Detroit Pistons based on his impressive NBA Summer League performances. Tuesday, "KCP" hit the game winning shot in Detroit's 80-78 win over the Miami Heat. Caldwell-Pope was also the most efficient player on a winning team* (* 20 mins. minimum played) which earned him our Hoop Obsession MVP for the fourth day of summer action in Orlando, FL. KCP finished with 26 points and seven assists (only one turnover) in 24 minutes. He also showed toughness by playing on a "turned" ankle, suffered in the first half.  

Most efficient point guard on a winning team: Ian Miller, Detroit. ...Forced into extra duty after Peyton Siva tweaked a hamstring, Miller (Florida St.) responded by helping get his team to the winner's circle. He had 16 points (6-10 FG), four rebounds, and three assists in 23 minutes. 

Most efficient small forward on a winning team: K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia. ...McDaniels is a hyper-athletic wing that makes the kind of transition chase-down blocks that ignite crowds, and teammates. He finished Tuesday with 15 points (4-8 FG, 5-6 FT), and five rebounds in 21 minutes. His 76er's squad beat down the hapless Houston summer team 92-71. 

Most efficient power forward on a winning team: Tony Mitchell, Detroit. ...The explosive forward scored eight points (4-5 FG), grabbed six rebounds, dished two assists, had two steals, and blocked two shots, doing a bit of everything in 30 minutes. Mitchell played center Tuesday. We see him as a PF. 

Most efficient center on a winning team: Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia. ...Noel was solid Tuesday after a big performance Saturday. Tuesday Noel scored eight points, had six rebounds, three blocked shots and two steals in 24 minutes. He altered numerous shots by the Rockets players who dared get near the paint. 

Seven more stars: 

Dedmon blocks shots but also fouls often.

DeWayne Dedmon - Orlando ...The most efficient player on a losing team Tuesday was Dedmon. He scored 13 points (3-4 FG, 7-10 FT) with two blocked shots, and two steals in 20 minutes. He was hampered by foul trouble however and his Magic team lost to Memphis 80-73. 

DeAndre Liggins - Detroit. ...Consistently putting together good basketball games, Liggins has really opened our eyes to his potential as a glue guy at the wing. He rarely tries to do too much, and he has impressed us with his unselfishness and ability to create for his teammates. Liggins had 14 points (3-4 3-pt FG, 5-6 FT), three rebounds, and five assists (only one turnover) Tuesday. 

Jerami Grant - Philadelphia. ...Grant had his best summer outing to date with a productive 12 points and five rebounds in just 20 minutes. He made his lone three-point attempt. ...We don't think he has the skills yet to be a small forward in the NBA. 

Terrico White - Memphis. ...White used to try to do way too much. Now his game appears to have slowed down and become smarter. He was consistently in the right position Tuesday, hitting a couple three point shots on his way to ten points (4-6 FG) in 23 minutes. 

Casper Ware - Philadelphia. ...Ware posted 16 points, with four assists and two steals in Philly's win. 

Justin Hamilton - Miami. ...Hamilton scored eleven points (4-8 FG, 1-1 3-pt. FG, 2-2 FT) and had zero turnovers in 21 minutes at center. 

Jarnell Stokes - Memphis. ...The beast forward from Tennessee scored eleven points and grabbed 12 rebounds in the Memphis win.  

Notes: Kalin Lucas played very well for Memphis in their win. The former Michigan State point guard only played 19 minutes but he ran their show with precision. He had 14 points, four rebounds, three assists, and only one turnover.