NBA All Rookie Team 2014-15

Mirotic is a quality rookie forward

The All-Rookie Team in the NBA is as subjective as you would like to make it. In a season such as this one, I'd bet many voters had a hard time coming up with ten rookie names. The NBA All-Rookie Teams are one award that, to us, is annually goofed up by voters putting too much value in per-game averages. That is how you get Gary Neal on the First Team in 2010-11 ahead of Eric Bledsoe or Derrick Favors. In 2012-13 It was Dion Waiters making the First Team ahead of Andre Drummond. 

It is understandable. Many voters simply compare per-game averages of players and roll with the guy who has the higher numbers. But what if the guy with the higher numbers is playing eight minutes more per-game simply because his team stinks, and is "in the tank"? 

Our issue with using per-game averages as the most important factor is that - not all teams are playing guys the same way. For instance, a rookie on the San Antonio Spurs, a veteran laden, championship winning team, is not going to have anywhere close to the equal amount of opportunities a rookie in Philadelphia will get. By breaking production down to a per-minute basis, we can "level the court" somewhat. 

Since we are way more obsessive than most, and for the sake of further educating ourselves, we took the time to closely examine 44 rookie NBA players, vying for ten spots on the All-Rookie Teams. 

Per-minute efficiency can help focus in on who has a chance to play for years in the NBA. Almost without fail, low-efficiency guys will fade away, into the D-League, or perhaps overseas.  We also believe the defensive aspect of the game is lost too often when it comes to NBA All-Rookie teams. 

We used the following criteria and formula... Total Production - 40% (efficiency rating multiplied by number of minutes played), Efficiency Rating (per-minute) 30%, Defensive Rating 20%, and number of wins 10%. ...We then built two teams using the data and our feel as a guide.

2014-15 NBA All-Rookie First Team

Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Mirotic, Nerlens Noel. 

All Rookie Second Team: 

Jordan Clarkson, Zach LaVine, Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker, Jusuf Nurkic. 

Players who were close to making our lists included: Tarik Black, Mitch McGary, James Ennis, K.J. McDaniels, Cory Jefferson, and Langston Galloway. 

The 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year is...

Noel should be the NBA R.o.Y.

Let's face it, this 2014-15 class of NBA rookies has been disappointing as a whole. In a league of grown men, the NBA rookie is lucky to get minutes on a good team. On a bad team, a rookie may find it easier to play extended time. This fact muddies the water when trying to sift out which rookie has been the league Rookie of the Year. In many cases, activity is confused for achievement. For franchises that are in rebuilding mode, the coach may be encouraged to play rookies as many minutes as they can handle. 

So how do we decide who should be Rookie of the Year? I want to go deeper than simply giving it to the guy with the highest scoring average. This is where our efficiency rating (per-minute) comes in handy. The "EFR" tells us who is actually achieving out there. We then will multiply the EFR number by the number of minutes played to find out who has actually produced the most. 

Defense is usually not considered much when thinking about Rookie of the Year. But it should be. It's half of the game of basketball. And I also think we should consider the team's record. 

The candidates worthy of consideration are: Jordan Clarkson, Zach LaVine, Nikola Mirotic, Nerlens Noel, Jusef Nurkic, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart, and Andrew Wiggins. 

Using a simple point system, we will rank each player in the three categories we mentioned above. The most important category is total production, followed by defensive rating, and then team record. We will weigh the point system so that team record is worth only half of the value of total production and defensive rating. 

Total production: 

Noel: EFR .508 x 2240 = 1137.9
Wiggins: EFR .370 x 2683 = 992.7
Payton: EFR .427 x 2225 = 950
Mirotic: EFR .564 x 1494 = 842.6
Nurkic: EFR .583 x 984 =  573.6
Clarkson: EFR .470 x 1218 = 572.4
LaVine: EFR .348 x 1621 = 564.1
Smart: EFR .351 x 1597 = 560.5

The EFR suggests that if Mirotic played for a team other than Chicago, where he plays behind Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, and Taj Gibson, Mirotic would likely stand out more. 

 Mirotic on a bad team = numbers would swell.

Defensive Rating:

Noel 98.1
Nurkic 98.6
Mirotic 101.5
Smart 105.1
Payton 106.9
LaVine 112.3
Clarkson 113.6
Wiggins 114

Team Record:

Mirotic 45-30
Smart: 34-41
Nurkic 28-47
Payton 22-53
Clarkson 20-54
Noel: 18-58
Wiggins 16-59
LaVine 16-59

Using the method described above to come up with a total for each player, we find that Nerlens Noel comes out as our choice for Rookie of the Year, narrowly edging out Nikola Mirotic. (Totals: Noel 17.5, Mirotic 17, Nurkic 14, Payton 12.5, Smart 9.5, Wiggins 8.75, Clarkson 7, LaVine 5.75.)

The points system we used was harsh to Andrew Wiggins. But that is why we do this. While Wiggins has had more highlight dunks than any of the other rookies, his defense has been horrid, and his team has lost more games than any of the other candidates (except his own teammate, LaVine). 

...So voters go forward with Nerlens Noel as your 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year. He has the most total production AND the best defensive rating among those considered. Those are two good reasons to give Noel the nod. 

Mirotic City - Talent among European players is strong.

In a draft that I feel is deep with future NBA players - albeit not rich in future All-Stars, I see value in two of the European players in particular. Perhaps it is simply because the commercial mock-draft sites are USA based - but it appears that most mocks are maligning European prospects when in fact many of these dudes can really play.

Let's start with Nikola Mirotic. He is a 6'10" Small Forward that at age 20 is playing for Real Madrid. He is under contract with the Spanish powerhouse until 2016. Because of his contract situation - I wouldn't swing for him in the first round - but if I were a GM with a contract of my own through 2016 - I would certainly gamble on him in the second round just to retain his rights. Mirotic has length (7'1" wingspan - Draft Express), and he can score and rebound at a high rate. He shoots the ball well (.505 FG%, .865 FT), and he moves with a fluidity that translates to the NBA game. Check out this video to see what I mean:


Next up is another Small Forward prospect from Germany by the name of Robin Benzing. This 22 year-old can really stretch the defense with his three point shooting ability. …He is a scorer. …Right handed. He is aggressive when it comes to putting the ball in the hoop. I like that. I also like that he gets to the free throw line at a high rate for a Small Forward. ...Benzing takes charges, and he competes. In my opinion, he is being underrated by nearly every mock draft board I've seen. ...His shortcomings include his passing and playmaking for teammates. Benzing has more turnovers than assists for all the stats I can dig up for him.

I am a fan of Adam Hanga from Hungary. He is a 6'7" Shooting Guard  that is athletic enough to blend in with the best athletes in the world that populate NBA floors. Hanga he has a nice combo of ball-handling and passing skill to go with solid size for his position. This season he dished 132 assists while only turning it over 72 times. 

I am not high on Pablo Aguilar, Chu Chu Maduabum or Pere Tomas. I'm lukewarm on Andrew Albicy - a French Point Guard that can lead a team with his heart, hustle, and passing skill. On the flip-side though - he is small (although solidly built), and his shot is inconsistent.

I'm warming to 6'11" forward Jan Vesely but I am still convinced he is being grossly overrated by everyone. His athleticism is legitimate but his efficiency just does not equate to greatness - especially if he turns out to be more of a FOUR than a THREE. His hands are questionable. He is only a 47% free throw shooter.


Tomislav Zubcic is an athletic 6'10" kid that can shoot, and handle the ball (he ran the point for portions of the 2009 Hoop Summit). He - like Vesely is much more valuable if he can play Small Forward but I believe he would struggle to guard most NBA Small Forwards - so he will be a "stretch four". He likes the perimeter game and is unselfish with good vision. ...He is under contract in Europe through 2014.